When Does a Hybrid War Become a Real War?

According to the program, Russia carried out a wave of sabotage across Europe throughout the summer. In August, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of an escalating campaign of threats. She said it was unsettling citizens and was intended to divide the Union. She explicitly called it "hybrid warfare."

This is precisely the term the program takes as its starting point. Some consider it a euphemism and believe it fails to capture the seriousness of the situation. One German-speaking interviewee points to the bomb that was defused at Leipzig airport in August. There, he says, "a really large number of people would have died." He says he can understand why experts consider the term hybrid war to be a euphemism. "State terrorism" has also been suggested, and that, he says, is actually a better fit here. Another statement says that the dangerous conduct of the Russian Federation is part of a long chain of attempts at destabilization, disinformation, intimidation, sabotage and aggression against Europe.

The program lists a series of incidents. In recent months, Russian drones are said to have violated the airspace over several European airports, including Frankfurt and Munich, Tallinn and Copenhagen. The railways are also a target: last November, a line used to transport munitions to Ukraine was destroyed. The attack has been attributed to Russia. In August, Romania destroyed an explosives-laden naval drone off its Black Sea coast.

On top of this come numerous incursions by Russian aircraft and drones near the EU's borders, as well as acts of sabotage on undersea cables in 2024 and 2025, which have also been attributed to Russia. The program describes drone overflights of major military bases as even more worrying. It names Ramstein in Germany, one of the command centers, and the French submarine base in Brittany, from which nuclear missiles can be launched.

A Polish speaker appeals that perhaps Germans, French, Italians and Spaniards will now also understand that "in the face of evil, no one must be left alone." This, he says, applies to all peoples and all leaders of the free world.

The presenter acknowledges that the topic is not new. The program already reported on Russia's hybrid war last year and the year before. Disinformation, cyberattacks and damage to infrastructure have long been part of the Kremlin's repertoire, but have recently intensified.

An expert from an international research center explains this in terms of the situation on the front line. Russia steps up hybrid activities when things are not going well there, he says. Moscow wants to reduce Western support for Ukraine. At the same time, it wants to wear societies down so that citizens begin to question that support.

The EU has so far acted cautiously, according to the program. One reason for this is the ambiguity of the attacks. There have also been attacks on energy infrastructure in Europe that later turned out to be the work of militant climate activists.

After the incident in Leipzig, Germany summoned the Russian ambassador and closed the last Russian consulate in the country, in Bonn. A cultural center in Berlin, long suspected of serving as a Russian espionage base, was also shut down. The program calls these steps "somewhat timid." Critics say Germany is afraid of provoking the bear and risking escalation.

The limits of such diplomatic tools are illustrated by a statement from a Polish politician. Every time Russia carried out arson attacks or tried to blow up a moving train on a high railway embankment, he said, he closed a Russian consulate. The only problem is that he has now run out of consulates to close. According to the program, Poland is particularly affected. A report published this year by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism identified 151 sabotage attacks in Europe for the period from 2022 to 2026. One fifth of them took place in Poland.

How could the EU strike back? One idea that has been debated for years concerns the frozen Russian assets. Since 2022, the EU has frozen around 200 billion euros in assets of the Russian central bank as part of its sanctions. The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and Spain want to use this money as reparations for war damage to support Ukraine. The problem: the funds are held in Belgium, and Belgium fears retaliation from Moscow. The Belgian government has so far blocked the move.

Another possibility is to take action against Russia's shadow fleet. According to the program, around 3,000 ships are currently sailing the world's oceans under foreign flags, some with their transponders switched off. One interviewee regrets that the EU has so far been unable to reach agreement on this. That is due not least to the fact that Germany has applied the brakes and been more cautious than other countries.

This hurts for two reasons, he says. First, a substantial transfer of raw materials runs through these ships, with the proceeds flowing into Russia's war chest. Second, ships of the shadow fleet have been accused of being involved in cutting undersea cables. They are also said to have served as platforms for drones that flew from there to the mainland.

In 2025, the EU introduced strict entry rules for Russian diplomats. Now nine EU member states, along with Iceland and Norway, are calling for these restrictions to be extended to all Russian citizens. According to the program, Italy, France and Spain in particular issue many visas for short stays in the Schengen Area.

One expert considers this risky. There is no autonomous sector in Russian society, she says. Everything works toward a single goal, namely advancing Russian imperialism. This applies equally to culture, scientific and academic cooperation, and the economy. Russian intelligence services make use of all these areas.

The program sums up the experts' message as follows: get out of the defensive and go on the offensive. A German-speaking expert cites an example from the United States. Two years after the election in question, he says, the US took the most important Russian troll factory offline for a week with a cyberattack during the midterm elections. That had a deterrent effect. Since then, manipulation of this kind has declined, at least as far as he knows. He says it would be highly desirable for Germany and the West to develop such capabilities and also to muster the political will to use them.

In closing, the program points out that the situation is tense in many European countries, including Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Spain, Slovakia, Poland and Italy. All signs suggest that Russia is exploiting this to destabilize Europe. The program does not offer its own answer to how Europe should respond. It passes the question on to its audience.