Can the European Union Expand Without Falling Apart?
ARTE.tv Documentary
The last time the European Union admitted a new member was more than 13 years ago. According to this episode of ARTE's Inside Europe, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed that. Since the war began, the presenter says, the EU "has never been more attractive," and countries to the east and southeast are lining up at the gate. The episode asks whether a Union of 30 or even 35 members is a good idea, and whether the EU can grow without breaking down. The presenter is joined by Benjamin, described as an enlargement specialist.
Enlargement as Opportunity and as Trojan Horse
The episode frames the debate with the image of the Trojan Horse, which it says Brussels takes "very seriously." Supporters of enlargement argue that new members would bring more security, more diversity, and more strength. Critics see enlargement as a threat. One voice in the opening says it would mean "widening the scope for unfair competition and for social and environmental dumping." Others argue that the EU already has too many problems with 27 members. Together these views set up the central question.
The Rules of the Race
To explain the accession process, the presenter compares it to a race. Candidate countries start on one side and the EU waits at the finish line, with obstacles in between. To finish, a country must bring its laws into line with EU standards: the same environmental rules, the same democratic standards, a market economy, alignment with EU foreign policy, and more. These requirements are grouped into 35 chapters. The EU can also freeze a country's progress at any point if it stops respecting the rules.
On paper, the requirements are clear, and many countries have already completed the process. The episode argues that in practice it has been much harder.
Thessaloniki, the Debt Crisis, and "Enlargement Fatigue"
The presenter points out that the European Council declared the Western Balkans' accession a priority in Thessaloniki in 2003. The process then stalled, a period that came to be called "enlargement fatigue."
The episode traces part of this to the late 2000s. The subprime crisis turned into a debt crisis, which the presenter calls arguably the greatest challenge the EU had ever faced. Member states turned their attention to problems inside the Union rather than to the countries trying to join. The candidates, in turn, began to ask why they should carry out difficult reforms if the EU was not serious about its promise.
Where the Candidates Stand
Drawing on the EU's latest enlargement progress report, the episode sorts the candidates into stalled and advancing cases:
- Turkey: negotiations have been at a standstill since 2018. The presenter notes the country does not really meet EU democratic standards.
- Georgia: the situation is similar, because of the government's shift toward authoritarianism and a pro-Russian stance.
- Kosovo: not all EU countries even recognize it.
- Moldova and Albania: making progress.
- Montenegro: described as nearly ready.
According to the presenter, almost all the other candidates are moving forward. That progress revives an old debate in Brussels: should the EU reform itself and solve its internal problems before expanding?
The Fear of "a New Orbán"
The presenter says that even with 27 members, things are "not always smooth sailing," and asks viewers to imagine 30 or 35. According to the episode, the biggest fear in Brussels is that "a new Orbán" might emerge in one of the new member states, though "no one will say it on camera."
The presenter describes Viktor Orbán, the pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister, as someone who repeatedly blackmailed Brussels in recent years, especially over Ukraine. The episode adds that, beyond paralyzing Europe, he built an authoritarian system at home, muzzled the media, and undermined judicial independence. The EU institutions, the presenter says, take seriously the possibility of a similar scenario in a newly admitted country.
Brussels' Emerging Strategy
The episode says the EU is refining its enlargement strategy and that the team got an early look at it. The plan has three parts.
Fewer unanimous votes. The European Commission believes there should be fewer unanimous decisions, especially in foreign affairs. When unanimity is required, any single member can block everything.
Gradual accession. Candidates would be integrated step by step into EU programs before formal membership. These could include cohesion funds, research funding, Erasmus, and the single market. Until now, countries had to wait until they joined to receive any of these benefits.
Safeguards after accession. Once a country joins, Brussels would make it easier to block its funds or voting rights if it slides toward authoritarianism. Some money would also be released only after a delay. Access to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) funds, for example, would take a few years.
The presenter argues that gradual accession could help overcome the stagnation of the past 15 years. It would also break the all-or-nothing logic in which a country goes from being a candidate with nothing to a member with everything.
Asked what candidates could concretely receive, the episode lists several benefits:
- cheaper mobile phone plans when traveling
- participation in collective defense efforts alongside EU member states
- easier study elsewhere in the EU
- access to the single market
- simpler bank transfers
The Waiting-Room Problem
According to the episode, Balkan countries are not enthusiastic about this approach. They fear being stuck permanently in an intermediate status. To them, it feels like the EU is creating second-rate countries and trapping them in "a giant waiting room."
The episode then visits Marta Kos, introduced as the person preparing for enlargement. Her office tracks candidates with a color code: red means not yet, yellow means in progress, and green means good to go. She says Montenegro could become the 28th member in 2028.
When the presenter raises the waiting-room complaint, Kos explains why the process has become harder. In 2004, candidate countries had to adopt more than 100,000 pages of EU law. Today there are twice as many. She adds that the larger number of member states also makes things harder, because each state asserts its own interests.
Asked why enlargement is necessary, Kos frames it geopolitically. If the EU fails to integrate most of the candidates in its neighborhood, she says, they will fall under the growing influence of outside actors, and those states wish neither the candidates nor the EU well.
Montenegro as a Test Case and the Question of Ukraine
The episode then shares skeptical views from off-the-record sources. One expert told the presenter by phone that he wonders whether the EU really wants to expand. In his view, the attention on Montenegro is partly for show. A country of 600,000 people will not change the face of Europe, but things get difficult as soon as larger countries are involved. Another source said a lot is riding on Montenegro, because if the EU cannot make it work with this country, it will not make it work with any other.
The larger country everyone has in mind, the presenter says, is Ukraine, with about 40 million inhabitants. Its accession date is very hard to predict. Integrating a country of that size economically and politically would be a major challenge, because it would disrupt the balance of power within the Union. The episode also notes potential benefits. Ukraine could help secure the continent's food supply, and in a harsher world, its technological capabilities, especially in the military sector, could help the EU defend itself more effectively.
A Long Way From the Finish Line
The presenter says they spoke to more than ten people in Brussels while preparing the episode, and none of them believes Ukraine will join the EU anytime soon. Their conclusion is that, except perhaps for Montenegro, the candidates are "clearly a long way from the finish line."
The episode ends with one more obstacle: public opinion in some member states. In France, for example, the public does not view enlargement very favorably. That worries supporters of enlargement, the presenter says, because French voters will likely have to approve any new accession in a referendum. The episode leaves the question open and asks viewers whether they support a Europe of 28, 30, or 35 members.
Do you know the story of the Trojan Horse? Well, in Brussels, they take it very seriously. Listen up.
The last time the European Union expanded was over 13 years ago, but a war changed everything. In the middle of the night, Russian tanks invaded Ukraine. Since then, the European Union has never been more attractive. So, in the east and southeast, there's a scramble at the gate.
We'll increase our security and our diversity in a way. We'll increase our strength.
So, what does this have to do with the Trojan Horse? Well, actually, some see enlargement as a sort of threat.
It means widening the scope for unfair competition and for social and environmental dumping.
Some say that with 27 members, we already have too many problems. Hence, the question: can the European Union expand without falling apart? Coming soon to your screens.
Hi, Yves.
Yep.
As you've gathered, we're going to talk about enlargement, a Europe of 30 or even 35 member states. Is it a good idea? Before we begin, for this video, I won't be alone.
Should I look at the camera, at you, or should I just really focus on the camera?
This is Benjamin. He's an enlargement specialist. He'll be here to help us out along the way.
To take stock of the situation, we've pulled out all the stops.
So, here's the starting line with all our candidates, and over there is Europe. In between, there are plenty of obstacles.
To make it to the finish line, the country's laws must match European Union standards. The same environmental rules, the same democratic standards, a market economy, alignment with EU foreign policy, and so on. In total, there are 35 chapters. But be aware that at any moment, the EU can freeze the race if a country no longer respects the rules.
On paper, the requirements are clear. And quite a few countries have already been through this. So it shouldn't be that bad, right?
Look, the Balkans' accession to the EU is a priority. The European Council said so in Thessaloniki. And when was that? Back in 2003.
The process had stalled. A period that came to be known as enlargement fatigue. Then towards the end of the 2000s, the crisis hit. The subprime crisis morphed into a debt crisis, which is arguably the greatest challenge the European Union had ever faced. Consequently, member states turned their focus inward to what was happening within the EU, rather than looking at the countries seeking to join. Meanwhile, candidate countries wondered: if the EU isn't serious about this promise, why carry out the reforms needed for accession?
Here is the European Union's latest report on the progress of enlargement. Negotiations with Turkey have been at a standstill since 2018. Admittedly, the country doesn't really meet the EU democratic standards. It's a similar story with Georgia, given the government's shift towards authoritarianism and a pro-Russian stance. Not all EU countries even recognize Kosovo.
But the report shows that almost all the other countries are making progress. Moldova, Albania, and especially Montenegro, which is nearly ready. This is where things get complicated, because in Brussels it reignites an old debate. Before expanding, shouldn't we reform first? That is, solve our own internal problems?
Get your paper here. Is Europe ready?
Even with 27 members, it's not always smooth sailing. So, just imagine what it would be like with 30 or 35.
Here in Brussels, no one will say it on camera, but the number one fear is that a new Orbán might emerge in these countries.
Remember, Viktor Orbán was the pro-Russian Hungarian prime minister, and in recent years, he constantly blackmailed Brussels, particularly regarding Ukraine. Beyond paralyzing Europe, he established an authoritarian system at home, muzzled the media, and undermined judicial independence.
The institutions are taking very seriously the prospect of a Hungarian-style scenario playing out in a country joining the EU.
The European Union is currently refining its strategy. We got an early look at it. First, how do you make decisions with 27 members? The European Commission believes there should be fewer unanimous votes, especially regarding foreign affairs. After all, when members have to vote unanimously, any single member has the power to block everything.
Next, Brussels is considering a new method for integrating candidate countries. Here's what it might look like. The EU would gradually integrate candidates into EU programs, cohesion funds, research funding, Erasmus, the single market. Until now, countries had to wait for formal membership before they could benefit.
And once the candidate country joins the EU, Brussels plans to put safeguards in place to make it easier to block funds or voting rights in the event of a slide towards authoritarianism. Brussels wouldn't release some of the money immediately. For instance, it would take a few years to access CAP funds.
Gradual accession could help overcome the stagnation the process has faced for 15 years, and move beyond the binary logic where you go from a candidate state with nothing to a member state with everything.
What can we give them, for example?
In practical terms, gradual accession allows people to travel while paying less on their mobile plans. It is about collective defense efforts alongside EU member states, study more freely elsewhere in the EU, take part in the single market, and make bank transfers more easily.
Despite this, Balkan countries aren't exactly thrilled. Their fear is remaining in this intermediate status forever. To them, it feels like creating second-rate countries, trapping them in a giant waiting room.
Red means not yet, yellow in progress, and here we're good to go.
Managing that waiting room is Marta Kos's job. She's the one preparing for enlargement.
And Montenegro could be the 28th member in 2028.
But for others, we're still a long way off. They say they're in a kind of waiting room.
In 2004, candidate countries had to adopt over 100,000 pages of the European legal framework. Today, there are twice as many. And it has also become even more difficult because there are more EU member states. And these states assert their own interests.
In your view, why is it necessary to enlarge the EU?
It is crucial today that we truly succeed in the enlargement process. Because if we fail to integrate most of the candidates in our neighborhood, they will fall under the growing influence of other actors from outside the EU. And those foreign states wish neither the candidates nor the European Union well.
So, what happens now?
Here's what an expert told me over the phone off the record. He wonders if the European Union really wants to expand.
All the attention is on Montenegro, but that's partly for show. A country of 600,000 inhabitants won't change the face of Europe. But as soon as larger countries are involved, that's when things get tricky.
Another source adds: a lot is riding on Montenegro because if we can't make it work with this country, we won't make it work with any other. And of course everyone is thinking of Ukraine and its 40 million inhabitants.
It is very difficult to predict a date for EU accession. The challenge for the EU will be integrating a country of that size, both economically and politically. Because it disrupts the balance of power, but it also brings opportunities. Ukraine, for instance, can help ensure the continent's food security. In this harsher world, Ukraine possesses technological capabilities, particularly in the military sector, that could enable the European Union to defend itself more effectively.
I spoke to over 10 people in Brussels to prepare for this episode. And frankly, none of them believes Ukraine will join the EU anytime soon. In truth, with the possible exception of Montenegro, we're clearly a long way from the finish line.
It's also worth noting that in some countries, like France, the public doesn't view EU enlargement very favorably. And that worries proponents of enlargement because before any new accession takes place, the French people will likely have to approve it by a referendum. So, are you for or against a Europe of 28, 30, or even 35 member states? Let's discuss it in the comments and subscribe to ARTE's YouTube channel so you don't miss the next episode.
Mhm.
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