Iceland Says "No": What the Referendum Means for the EU's Pull
ARTE.tv Documentary
In a referendum, nearly 53% of Icelanders voted against resuming membership talks with the European Union. This episode of ARTE Europe Weekly asks whether that result shows the EU is losing its appeal. It looks at why Iceland's voters chose the status quo, how other wealthy non-members such as Norway and Switzerland relate to the bloc, and what the vote might mean for the EU's plans to take in new members.
A Referendum That Wasn't an In-Out Vote
The programme opens with an Icelandic voice on the "no" side: joining the EU would cost the country money, Iceland already has everything it needs, and as one of the richest countries in the world it does not need anything more. The presenter calls this a "thanks, but no thanks" to Brussels, and notes that Switzerland and Norway, also wealthy, have kept the EU at arm's length for years.
The presenter compares the vote with the UK's referendum about a decade earlier, when 52% of Britons voted to leave the bloc and Brexit began. A little over ten years later, and about 800 km north of mainland Britain, nearly 53% of Icelanders said no to closer ties with Brussels. The programme stresses one difference. Iceland was not voting on whether to be in or out of the EU. It was voting on whether to resume membership negotiations. The programme reads the result as a sign that citizens are content with Iceland's current position outside the club.
Frustration Among the Losing Side
The programme describes Iceland as sitting at a strategic crossroads between Europe and North America. It says this position could leave the country exposed to power grabs by Russia, or even by Donald Trump. For the side that lost, that is part of why the EU's offer was attractive.
The morning after the vote, supporters of new talks were frustrated. One argued that the vote was only about "seeing the menu", meaning finding out what a deal would contain. In their view it was not a vote on joining, so they could not see why anyone would oppose it.
Fishing and Security: The Two Main Issues
According to the report, fishing dominated the campaign. It is one of Iceland's key industries, and its representatives campaigned hard against accession in the weeks before the vote. One industry voice said Iceland keeps 100% of the profit from fishing and wants it to stay that way. Their concern was that joining the EU's Common Fisheries Policy would break up a value chain that has produced a great deal of profit for the Icelandic population.
The second major issue was security, and Iceland's standing as a small island state in world affairs. One voter said they felt threatened by Trump's stance on Greenland. They also cited the tariffs he has imposed on Canada, and suggested that belonging to a bloc might help Iceland. The programme concludes that for many Icelanders, the fear of losing existing benefits ultimately outweighed the hope of gaining new ones.
A Campaign Far Less Polarized Than Brexit
The country split almost evenly on the question, but the report says the debate was nowhere near as polarized as Britain's Brexit campaign. The "no" side did not use anti-EU slogans. It focused instead on how well Iceland was already doing. One campaigner said Iceland is better off outside the EU while working closely with it through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement, which they called a very successful collaboration. Another said Iceland has managed its affairs well through volcanic eruptions and economic collapse, and that by staying independent it can look to the future with optimism.
The other side, the programme notes, did not really campaign for joining the EU. It campaigned for another round of talks with Brussels. Its message was less a clear "yes" than "yes, let's see what might be possible."
The Social Democratic prime minister had wanted Iceland to join, but she said she accepts the result. She said the big lesson for her and the government is that people are happy with the EEA agreement and the current relationship with the EU. She said the government will keep strengthening the EEA relationship together with Liechtenstein and Norway, and with the EU itself.
Rich Countries Outside the Club, But Not Far From It
The presenter says the Icelandic "no" is bound to be seen as a blow to the EU's self-image, and that it has prompted plenty of press analysis and political discussion about whether the EU still has its draw, and for whom. The programme grants that the argument has some merit. Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein all rank among the top seven countries in the world for GDP per capita, and none of them is an EU member.
The programme then adds a caveat. All of these countries have close ties with the EU in some form, which the presenter describes as a "friends of the club" pass without full membership. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland built partnerships with the 27 member states without joining, and have been part of the Schengen area as associated countries since 2001. Iceland and Norway also belong to the European Economic Area. That gives them access to the single market and to the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. Switzerland is not in the EEA, but it has negotiated broad access to the internal market through a series of bilateral agreements.
The trade figures in the report show how much these countries depend on the EU:
- 66.5% of Iceland's exports go to the EU, its largest trade partner.
- The EU is also Norway's leading trade partner, taking 66.3% of Norwegian exports each year.
- Switzerland is an industrialized country with few raw materials, and the EU remains its main trade partner. Trade between them has doubled over the past 30 years, which the programme credits to the various bilateral agreements.
The programme argues that this strong economic performance partly explains why these countries want to keep their current model. In its summary, these wealthy countries do not believe they need to be full EU members to survive and prosper.
Does the EU Even Want to Grow?
The report then turns to enlargement. There are currently nine official candidate countries, and the programme says the question of whether the 27 members want new ones comes up often. It argues that a larger EU carries risks. Foreign policy decisions, for example, require unanimity, so a single country can block a plan. More members around the table can mean more difficulty getting things done.
Public opinion is mixed. According to the figures cited, 56% of EU citizens support enlargement, but views on which countries should join vary with geography and other issues. Sweden, Denmark and Lithuania are the strongest supporters of enlargement. Austria and Czechia are much more skeptical, and France is the most skeptical of all. The programme also notes that some observers think enlargement serves the EU's interest even when the candidates are poorer countries.
A Setback or a Bump in the Road?
The episode ends with open questions. For supporters of enlargement, the presenter says, Iceland's rejection of renewed talks casts a cloud over the whole process. The tension between widening and deepening the EU has occupied the bloc for decades. The programme leaves unresolved whether Icelanders have dealt a real blow to enlargement or only caused a bump in the road, and what the result might mean for the current candidate countries.
We will lose money by joining the European Union. We have everything that we need. We are among the richest countries in the world. We don't need anything more.
Strong words from Iceland this week alongside a thanks, but no thanks to Brussels. Icelanders voted to stay outside the EU, but they are not alone. Despite their wealth, for years now, Switzerland and Norway have also kept the EU at arm's length. So, in short, Iceland says no. Is the EU losing its pull?
A referendum on EU membership, it all feels a little 2016. A decade ago, the UK voted to leave the bloc in a referendum, coining what we all now know as Brexit. At the time, 52% of Brits said no. And a little over 10 years on and some 800 km north of mainland UK, nearly 53% of Icelanders said no to closer ties with Brussels.
But this wasn't an in-out vote. It was a poll on whether to resume membership talks. The result suggests citizens are happy with the way things are, being outside the club.
Iceland sits at a strategic crossroads between Europe and North America. This location makes it potentially vulnerable to power grabs from Russia or even Donald Trump. So, for the losing camp, what the EU had to offer was quite enticing.
On the morning after the referendum, there's a sense of frustration amongst those who voted in favor of new accession talks with the EU.
We were just voting on seeing the menu, basically, what's in the package? Why would you be against this? This was not a vote on joining. It was a vote on what's in it for us?
Fishing dominated the election campaign. As it is one of Iceland's key industries, representatives campaigned vigorously against EU accession in the weeks leading up to the vote.
We have 100% of the profit in Iceland and we want to keep it that way. So, that is our worries if we join the common fisheries policy, is that this value chain that has generated all this profit for the Icelandic population, that will be torn apart.
The second major issue was Iceland's security and its position as a small island state on the world stage.
Trump and Greenland and these ones, that threatens me. Secondly, the tariffs that he's putting on Canada, it might help us to be a part of a bloc.
Given the vote, it seems that for many Icelanders the fear of losing existing benefits ultimately outweighed any hopes of gaining new ones.
Even though the question of opening EU accession talks split the country down the middle, the debate was nowhere near as polarized as the Brexit campaign in Britain. Instead of using anti-EU slogans, the no campaign focused on how well Iceland was doing as things stood.
I think Iceland is better off outside of the EU but in close collaboration with the EU through the EEA agreement. That has been a very successful collaboration.
We managed to manage our affairs pretty well through everything, whether it's eruption or collapse of economy, and by staying independent as we are, we look brightly to the future.
The opposite side did not really campaign in favor of EU accession but more for another round of talks with Brussels. Their slogan was not a clear yes but more of a yes, let's see what might be possible. Although the Social Democratic PM had wanted Iceland to join the EU, she accepts the no result.
We respect these results and a big lesson for me and also for the government is that people are happy with the EEA agreement. They're happy with the current relationship with the EU. We will continue to strengthen the EEA relationship along with Liechtenstein and Norway as well as with the EU, and that is the most important thing going forward.
The Icelandic nay is bound to be seen as a blow to the EU's self-image, and it's got people talking. Plenty of headlines and analysis across the press, and plenty of chatter in political circles. Does the EU still have its draw? And if it does, who is still seduced?
It's true that there is something to be said for that argument. Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein rank among the top seven countries globally for GDP per capita, and none of them are EU members. But here's the caveat. They all hold close ties with the EU in some capacity, a sort of friends of the club pass without being fully fledged members.
Switzerland, Norway, and Iceland didn't wait to be members of the European Union to develop partnerships with the 27 member states, and have been part of the Schengen area as associated countries since 2001.
Iceland and Norway are also already part of the European Economic Area, meaning that they benefit from the single market and the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people.
Switzerland, on the other hand, is not part of the EEA, but has negotiated very broad access to the European internal market through a series of bilateral agreements.
The European Union is, in fact, Iceland's largest trade partner with 66.5% of Icelandic exports destined for the European market. The same is true of Norway. The EU is also its leading trade partner accounting for 66.3% of Norwegian exports each year.
Switzerland, being an industrialized country with little in the way of raw materials, also maintains close ties with the European Union, which remains its primary trade partner. This partnership is working increasingly better thanks to various bilateral agreements, with trade having doubled over the past 30 years.
Such solid economic performance partly explains the desire these countries have to maintain their current model. In short, these wealthy countries don't believe they need to be an integral part of the EU to survive and prosper.
With currently nine official candidate countries to join the EU, the question of whether the bloc of 27 wants any new members does crop up often. An enlarged EU can carry greater risks. On foreign policy, for instance, decisions have to be unanimous. It takes just one country alone to derail plans. More heads around the table can mean more headaches when it comes to getting things done.
Not all European citizens are convinced about the bigger is better approach. 56% of EU citizens are in favor of enlargement, but the jury is out as to who these new members should be, with national voices holding varying views depending on geography and other key issues. Latest figures show that Sweden, Denmark, and Lithuania are the strongest supporters of enlargement. Austria and Czechia are much more skeptical, and France is the most skeptical of them all. That said, for some observers, enlargement is in the EU's interest even when it comes to poorer candidate countries.
For supporters of EU enlargement, a cloud now hangs over the entire process following Iceland's rejection of resuming accession talks.
Widening and deepening Europe, a debate that has now gripped the bloc for decades. So, have Icelanders dealt a blow to enlargement plans, or is it just a bump in the road? And what might this mean for candidate countries?
That's all for this episode of Weekly. Until next time, and ciao for now.
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