Israel Goes to the Polls on October 27: Netanyahu Faces Gadi Eisenkot

The report opens with a video posted on the Prime Minister's X account. Generated by artificial intelligence, it shows Gadi Eisenkot throwing himself into the arms of an Arab rather than those of a Jewish Israeli. According to the report, Eisenkot is Netanyahu's favorite target, and this is how Netanyahu has chosen his opponent. Later on, the report identifies the man in the video: he is Mansour Abbas, the leader of an Arab Israeli party.

The report predicts that security will dominate the campaign, in a society deeply shaken by October 7.

The Knesset, Israel's parliament, has 120 members. At least 61 seats are therefore needed to govern. Because the vote is proportional, the party that comes first generally does not reach that majority on its own. It has to build alliances around itself and its leader.

That is what Benjamin Netanyahu did in 2022. He allied himself with two far-right parties and with the ultra-Orthodox. This controversial alliance allowed him to stay in power for the past four years. One commentator points out that this is unusual. In Israel, early elections are almost the rule, because coalitions do not last the full four years. In 2022, this coalition was seen as fragile, but it held, "against all odds."

Netanyahu is now widely criticized. He is accused of having conceded too much to his allies in order to stay in power. According to one commentator, the opposition has never felt so strongly that the government was serving two specific sectors of the population: the Orthodox and the settlers. He puts them, roughly, at about 2 million people out of 10 million inhabitants. In his view, that leaves 8 million Israelis who feel they are not being heard.

At 76, Benjamin Netanyahu holds the record for the longest tenure as Prime Minister. With Likud, he has accumulated 18 years in power since 1996 and has no intention of stopping. The report puts forward another reason for this attachment to power: he is being prosecuted for corruption, and his office allows him to escape it.

According to one commentator, a large share of Israelis are looking for an alternative. He describes Netanyahu as an "ultra-dominant" figure and speaks of "genuine fatigue." Many blame him for failing to protect the country adequately before October 7, even though the intelligence services had warned him of a threat coming from Gaza.

This criticism will be one of the themes of the campaign. Several of Netanyahu's opponents are calling for a commission of inquiry into the matter. One commentator believes there is "no possible reparation" and no way past the trauma without a commission that sheds light on the massacre. Above all, he stresses what he calls the "state failure," the major breakdown of the state. According to him, many have forgotten it or never realized it: for a week, nothing worked in Israel.

The other major issue of the campaign is the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox. For now, they are exempt from taking part in the war effort. Netanyahu let them keep this privilege as long as they governed together. But the issue is now divisive.

One commentator calls this inequality "glaring" and "unacceptable to many Israelis" in an endless war. He cites reservists aged 25 to 40, mostly men but also women, who over three years have served 100, 200, 300 or 400 days of reserve duty. They have had to step away from their professional lives, their relationships and the upbringing of their children. In his view, they might have been able to serve half as much if the Orthodox had contributed as well.

Netanyahu's main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of the general staff who recently entered politics. His party is called Yashar, which means "straight ahead" or "upright" in Hebrew. The report presents him as the exact opposite of Netanyahu, whose military failures he denounces.

One commentator explains that part of the electorate is responsive to the fact that he has fought in several wars. Eisenkot also lost his son and his nephew in the war in Gaza that followed October 7. This gives him the image of a citizen on equal footing with everyone else. The commentator contrasts him with Benjamin Netanyahu's children, who did not serve in the army. He predicts that Eisenkot will play on patriotic sentiment: every Israeli must take part and sometimes even "pay the price in blood."

His popularity has been rising since January, according to a chart shown in the report. When asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister, respondents now put Eisenkot level with Netanyahu, at 38%. He avoids talking about a two-state solution, but takes a more conciliatory tone on the ongoing conflicts and on the need to bring them to an end.

Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, two veterans of Israeli politics, have joined forces for this election. They are leading an "anyone but Netanyahu" list. Some voters, however, see this alliance as unnatural.

Mansour Abbas leads an Arab Israeli party, Ra'am (the United Arab List). The report describes him as the man everyone both hates and courts, because he could play kingmaker. According to current polls, no party will be able to govern alone.

One commentator explains that for ten years Mansour Abbas has delivered a pragmatic message to the Arab population: they should no longer seek recognition, which he considers unattainable, but influence. He says he is ready to join any coalition that will allow the voice of Arab Israelis to be heard.

According to this commentator, it is more likely that Eisenkot will be the one to persuade one or more Arab parties to join him. But he would immediately be attacked by the right and by part of public opinion, which believes that Arab parties have no place in a coalition, even though they have sat in the Knesset for years.

Mansour Abbas leads an Islamist party close to the Muslim Brotherhood. He condemned the October 7 attacks. But since that date, the report notes, Israelis' distrust of Palestinians has kept growing. According to the report, Netanyahu is exploiting this to demonize his opponents and win over voters, as the video at the beginning shows.

The report concludes that anything goes in such a crucial election. It could seal the fate of the man who has dominated Israeli political life for twenty years.