How Anthropic Runs Growth From Inside a 10x-a-Year Curve: Amol Avasare on Big Bets, Automated Experiments, and the Squeezed PM

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Overview

Amol Avasare leads growth at Anthropic. On this podcast, host Lenny Rachitsky put the company's trajectory at roughly $1 billion in annual recurring revenue at the start of 2025, about $4 billion by mid-year, $9 billion by year's end, and $19 billion shortly after. That is 1x to 19x in about 14 months. Lenny's central question is what a growth team does at a company whose product seems to sell itself, and how that work changes when the models can start doing parts of it. Avasare's answer mixes modesty with specifics. He says the growth team deserves only a small share of the credit. He also says the job is the hardest he has had, that it forces a different balance between big bets and small optimizations, and that Anthropic is already using Claude to automate pieces of growth experimentation, product management, and management itself.

31 min read
4:21

Getting the job by cold email

Avasare says his path into Anthropic matched none of the categories shown at employee onboarding: referral, website application, or recruiter sourcing. He was a heavy Claude user who concluded that the company "obviously" had no growth team. He sent a cold email to Mike Krieger, then chief product officer, saying he loved the product, thought Anthropic badly needed a growth team, and wanted to talk. No growth roles were listed, but Anthropic was just starting to think about hiring for one, so the timing worked. Avasare says Krieger told him he is the only PM Krieger has hired from a cold email.

Avasare says he refined cold email over years as a founder. He tested subject lines until he had one with a "very, very high open rate," and declined to share it. He also tries to reach people through channels that are less crowded than LinkedIn or work email, which in this case meant finding Krieger's personal email. The message itself stayed short: who he is, why he'd be a good fit, and a request to chat. His rule is to keep following up until the person asks him to stop. Here, Krieger replied to the first email.

8:24

What the growth team actually does

Avasare begins by limiting how much credit his team can claim. He describes Anthropic as "a model company and an intelligence company first," and says most of its success comes from research, inference and compute, and teams such as Claude Code and marketing. He notes the roughly 10x yearly revenue pattern has held since the start: zero to about $100 million in 2023, $100 million to $1 billion in 2024, and $1 billion to roughly $10 billion in 2025.

He recalls joining in 2024, when revenue was in the hundreds of millions. In his second week, the company was planning 2025 revenue with base and aggressive scenarios. He says Dario Amodei pushed the aggressive case, people asked how they could possibly hit it, and Dario said he thought they could go much higher. Avasare was sure it couldn't happen, and it did. By late 2025 he expected growth to slow simply because the base had become so large, and he says it hasn't. He adds that the $19 billion figure dates from the end of February and is already stale. Internally, he jokes, "linear charts are just not cool." People want everything on a log-linear scale.

The categories of work look like any growth team's: acquisition and the intent of incoming users, activation (sign-up flow and routing people to the right product), and monetization (free-to-paid conversion, pricing, packaging). The difference is how the time splits. Avasare estimates about 70% of his time goes to what Anthropic calls "success disasters," where things have gone so well that other things break. He compares it to early Facebook, Uber, or DoorDash. The work is constant firefighting across all three categories, and he says it can be emotionally tough even while "all the charts are green." The remaining 30% is proactive: deciding which of many products deserve growth investment, working out long-term pricing and packaging while technology and engagement patterns shift, and judging when a new product like Cowork is ready for the growth team to optimize its adoption funnel.

13:56

Why activation is the hardest problem in AI

Asked about the feature that let users import their memory from ChatGPT, Avasare framed it as one example of a broader effort on the cold-start problem. The goal is to make it easy for Claude to understand who a new user is and how it can help them. He calls activation "a really big challenge in AI."

He says early activation, the day-zero and day-one experience, has always been among the highest levers for long-term retention, and that its importance has grown "exponentially." The industry-wide problem he describes is a "capability overhang": models improve faster than people can absorb. Even inside Anthropic, he says, busy employees have to set aside time with each new model to update their assumptions about what it can do. For most people, a model might be capable of remarkable things, but if their instinct is to ask "what's the weather in SF?", they won't get much from it.

This makes onboarding a moving target. He walks through the cycle. A model like Opus 4 has a set of capabilities, and Opus 4.5 unlocked a new set. By the time the team has tested on-ramps for one model's capabilities, learned from the results, and shipped a new flow, the next model may have arrived and made those learnings irrelevant.

Some old principles still hold for him. The highest leverage comes from matching the right product or feature to the right user. The right kind of friction helps.

Mercury: quality as a growth lever

Lenny mentioned that Anthropic co-founder Ben Mann had pointed to Avasare's onboarding work at Mercury. Avasare explains that Mercury's core value proposition is simply a better banking experience, and the company holds that ethos deeply. Onboarding for a regulated financial institution, though, is complicated. He recalls how much time he spent on the differences between a registered agent address, a legal address, and a physical address.

The team noticed it had invested heavily in quality across the product but not in the flow that is everyone's first experience. So for one quarter, the conversion-focused growth team set metrics aside and worked only on the quality of that flow. That included fixing problems like moving back between fields and entering beneficial ownership details. Avasare says that until he joined Anthropic, it was the single most impactful quarter he had had on a growth team, with a significant lift in onboarding completion. He took away the lesson that "quality drives growth," and says he has tried to bring it to Anthropic.

20:42

Good friction versus bad friction

Anthropic's onboarding asks users who they are and what they're interested in, then uses the answers to recommend products and features. Avasare says people look at it and complain about the friction and length. His reply is that the team has the data and is happy with how it performs.

He says that at every growth job he has held, adding the right steps increased conversion and funnel completion. The common instinct to cut every step and minimize time to value "doesn't work most times" when flows are tested thoroughly. His examples are MasterClass, whose purchase flow includes a quiz about why you came, which he says was thoroughly tested and was a significant revenue driver because it makes users feel the product is for them. Calm, where a former growth PM from his team went, also uses a quiz. At Mercury, splitting a screen with five or six form fields into two screens reduced cognitive load and performed well. His rule: cut friction that doesn't help users understand why the product is for them, and don't shy away from friction that does, but test it for your own business.

He adds that knowing who the user is pays off further down the funnel. It informs lifecycle messaging, and in more sophisticated businesses it enables lookalike targeting at the ad layer to reach people who dropped off. On competitor teardowns, he suggests Cowork with the Chrome extension can browse other companies' flows and report what works.

25:09

Org structure and the 70/30 flip toward big bets

The growth team is about 40 people, a mix of engineers, designers, PMs, and data. It has horizontal teams, growth platform and monetization, that work across all products, plus audience-focused pods such as B2B growth, Claude Code growth, knowledge-worker growth, and API growth. Avasare says a single funnel-stage team works when there is one product. With many products serving different audiences, and each with different internal partners, audience focus matters more. The Claude Code growth team, for example, works very closely with Cat and Boris and others on that product. He calls the structure imperfect and right "for a point in time."

The biggest difference from a traditional growth team is the balance of bets. At past companies he would have spent 60–70% of his time on small and medium bets and 20–30% on large swings. At Anthropic it is roughly flipped, 70/30 or closer to 50/50 in favor of bigger bets. Lenny pointed out that at Anthropic's scale a 1% win is enormous. Avasare agreed the team could stack small optimizations and tally up impressive quarterly impact, but said the company's fixation on "the exponential" pushes it the other way.

His reasoning: as model capabilities rise exponentially and the surrounding tools get better at turning them into useful applications, new markets keep opening that dwarf earlier ones. Agentic coding, he says, didn't exist a year and a half ago and is now bigger than the previous AI-coding market. He contrasts this with a typical grocery delivery or trading app, where he guesses a user might get 30–50% more value two years from now if the company executes well. A growth team there can capture much of that gap through small, high-conviction optimizations. For Anthropic, he estimates the product value two years out is "a hundred to a thousand X" today's, so missing the forest for the trees is the bigger risk. The team still does small optimizations, because their compounding matters and no one else will do them.

His example is the Claude Chrome extension, which he says now underpins a number of use cases in Cowork and Claude Code. The growth team built it, driven by one engineer who was bullish on a research-heavy, AI-native product that no one else was pursuing. He says he wouldn't have made that bet at another company.

He limits the lesson to products whose core value comes from AI, naming Lovable and Cursor as examples. For products with AI features on the side, he isn't sure this approach applies. It would depend on how the rest of the product and growth functions are staffed.

33:38

CASH: automating growth experiments with Claude

The development Avasare seemed most interested in is an effort to automate growth itself. The growth platform team, led in this effort by Alexey Komissarouk, who teaches growth engineering at Reforge, runs a project called CASH: "Claude Accelerates Sustainable Hypergrowth." Avasare calls the name "a little cringey" and says he didn't come up with it.

He stresses that it is very small and very early. It started a couple of months ago. He says it wasn't really possible before Opus 4.5, and with Opus 4.6 the team felt it was "headed in the right direction." He thinks growth is a natural early target because so much of the work consists of small optimizations.

The team breaks the shipping lifecycle into four stages and scores Claude on each, so each can be evaluated and improved:

  1. Identifying opportunities from trends and past patterns.
  2. Building the feature and getting it ready to ship.
  3. Testing that it meets the quality and brand bar.
  4. Analyzing results and gathering learnings after launch.

So far it has mostly produced copy changes and minor UI tweaks. Avasare says it is delivering results and "ultimately prints money." He puts its win rate at what he'd expect from a junior PM two or three years into the job, not yet a senior PM. He notes this wasn't possible at all a few months earlier and expects it to extend to larger experiments over time.

Right now a human approves experiments. Avasare says he tracks progress week over week: whether results are improving in each stage and whether people are spending less time on each. He expects much of the human review to become unnecessary. Brand review, for example, could be handled by a skill containing brand guidelines and clear do's and don'ts, which models will get better at using.

He named a fifth piece that the four stages leave out: cross-functional stakeholder management. This is why he doesn't think PM work is going away soon, at least for larger projects. He recalled debriefing a difficult meeting with his head of design, Joel, who said that even with AGI it will still be impossible to get six people in a room to align. Lenny noted that AI started in the middle of product development, with writing code, and is now spreading outward to deciding what to build. He suggested growth, being data-driven and loop-shaped, is where that starts.

41:19

Why the PM-to-engineer ratio may flip

Avasare says the question of how the PM–engineering–design triad changes comes up constantly at Anthropic, and the picture shifts quickly. At a 15–20-person startup, he expects roles to blend heavily, with the PM designing and shipping. At larger organizations he calls it undecided, and says people inside Anthropic disagree.

His current view is that all three roles are gaining leverage from AI, but engineering is gaining the most, especially from Claude Code. Take a default team of five engineers, one designer, and one PM. If the engineers are two to three times more productive, the team effectively has 15–20 engineers of output with the equivalent of one and a half to two PMs and designers. He says this is putting a lot of strain on PM and design. Claude Code is an exception, because the product is so technical that its PMs are essentially engineers. At a recent PM leads offsite, he says, the shared feeling was that PM and design are "absolutely squeezed," and the group discussed whether the answer is to hire many more PMs. He thinks that could be where things end up. The growth team is hiring PMs.

The other response is to lean on product-minded engineers. The growth team uses a rule: if a project takes two weeks of engineering time or less, the engineer acts as PM. That means talking to security, legal, and other stakeholders, with the PM advising and stepping in only if things go badly off track. Above two weeks, the PM stays accountable while delegating more. It isn't strict. A one-week project that is highly controversial should still be driven by a PM. He expects more companies to deputize engineers as "mini PMs," and says product-minded engineers' value has gone up by "an order of magnitude."

That shapes how he thinks PMs should spend their time. At small or budget-constrained companies, he says PMs should ship code, and PMs everywhere should build things to learn the tools. At scaled companies with 20 engineers per PM, he questions whether shipping the "21st feature" is the best use of a PM's time compared with improving the team's "why and what" by even 5%, which he calls extremely high leverage. When Lenny added that prototyping is also a way to form and communicate opinions, Avasare agreed and said he often prototypes to show an idea instead of describing it.

Skipping the PRD, keeping the kickoff

Avasare says Anthropic is "extremely scrappy" despite its size and that he is "averse to PRDs." He estimates 60–80% of what the team ships has no PRD. Small changes, such as an upsell for an upcoming launch, are worked out in Slack messages with capable engineers who push back on audience questions. The two-week rule serves as a filter for when more thinking is warranted.

For larger projects, he insists on a proper cross-functional kickoff. It is a 30-minute meeting with legal, safeguards, and others, where the team says what it plans to do and asks each group what it cares about. He considers this important because "no one knows what's going on" at a company moving this fast. Sometimes he skips the document entirely. Sometimes he asks Claude to draft a basic doc five minutes before the meeting. When he does write a PRD, he uses a skill he built, plus a project containing past PRDs, and gives Claude the why, the problem, and key considerations to expand. More and more, he goes straight to a prototype.

59:29

Using Cowork to find misalignment and read the metrics

Avasare described several ways he uses Claude day to day. One he finds most valuable is spotting misalignment. With Claude connected to Slack through MCP, he tells it which projects he's working on and what matters to him, and asks it to find potential misalignments. The task runs every week on a schedule. He says it does "a really, really good job," and imagines a version that warns someone before a launch about who they need to talk to. He says Scott, who leads Anthropic's enterprise team, found a few major misalignments this way that would have led teams to waste effort or duplicate work. He thinks cross-functional coordination is often the constraint on shipping at a large company, and that using AI to reduce that toil wasn't possible six months ago.

For metrics, a scheduled task in the Cowork desktop app reviews 20–25 charts each morning. It uses Hex links, the Chrome extension, and MCP connections, then tells him what needs attention, what is concerning, and what is interesting. He still looks at a few charts himself because he likes charts. The value is in covering the long and medium tail he wouldn't check daily, and his confidence grows as false positives and false negatives decline. Lenny floated the idea of a "strategy bot" that watches metrics, the market, and the roadmap and recommends pivots. Avasare guessed, calling it his "gut," that this will become very effective later this year.

He also hands off administrative work: booking meeting rooms, a first pass at archiving email, and filing reimbursements and expenses in Brex.

1:02:15

An AI version of your manager

The management uses surprised Lenny most. Each week, Avasare has Claude review what each direct report did, the team's goals and OKRs, and transcripts of their conversations, then suggest observations and feedback. He calls the quality "hit or miss": sometimes decent, sometimes wrong in ways that make him wonder why it raised something, and sometimes catching something he's very glad he noticed. He compares it to a coach who is "kind of drunk at times."

He runs the same process on himself. His manager, Ami Vora, has written a lot publicly about product. He asks Claude to act as her, drawing on her public writing, internal material, and their discussions, and to give him feedback based on what he did or didn't do that week. Another option is asking Claude to read everything a manager said in Slack in the past week and infer priorities he isn't aware of. He calls this layer "soft coaching" and considers it already usable. To set it up, he says you download the Cowork desktop app, connect the Slack MCP (which may require a team or enterprise admin to enable), and ask Claude.

1:06:41

Focus on coding and B2B as strategy and necessity

Lenny noted that Anthropic has focused narrowly on B2B and coding. Avasare says that focus goes back to the company's founding and comes from leadership. He mentions recently seeing a 2021 document by co-founder Ben Mann, written a few months after the company started, arguing that Anthropic should focus on AI coding. That was long before anyone knew how big the market would be.

He gives two reasons. One is commercial. The other is research acceleration: better coding models speed up the research loop that produces better models. He says this is now a common view across labs, but Dario has seen it clearly for years and has discussed it publicly.

The second driver, he says, was necessity. Anthropic was "the smallest, least well-funded player in this space," without the free cash flow or distribution of Meta or Google and without OpenAI's first-mover advantage. He calls where the company is now "a complete miracle." He ties this to a personal principle he calls "freedom through constraints": constraints remove excess choice and make the path clear. He also offers a counterfactual. Before his time, he says, Anthropic had a chatbot before ChatGPT launched but chose not to release it for safety reasons, because the team didn't want to start an AI arms race. ChatGPT's traction then pulled OpenAI toward consumer. If Anthropic had launched first, he says, things might have gone the other way. "It's always hard to say looking back."

1:12:11

Growth under a safety mission

Asked how a growth team fits into a company built around AI safety, Avasare pointed to Anthropic's structure as a public benefit corporation. He says that structure lets it legally state that maximizing shareholder value is not its overriding goal. He describes the mission as making sure the transition to powerful AI goes well for humanity, and says the company has repeatedly accepted significant commercial hits for it, with the unreleased early chatbot as an example.

For controversial growth tests, he uses two categories. The first is tests so controversial that the results don't matter because you would never ship them, for reasons of brand, customer friendliness, or values. For Anthropic, safety sits there. The second is tests he dislikes but that aren't red lines. He'll let someone with a strong hypothesis run those, but the more uncomfortable the idea, the bigger the return he wants to see.

He thinks a common mistake among hardcore growth practitioners is trying to squeeze out every last dollar. He compares it to founders who maximize a raise and lose investors' goodwill. His team is "very comfortable forgoing metric impact" to protect safety, brand, the quality bar, and user experience. He believes the best products work this way and that it drives more long-term growth. He predicts that as the stakes rise, Anthropic's safety stance will become a significant competitive advantage.

When Lenny raised criticism that Anthropic's warnings about AI risks and job losses are fear-mongering to raise money or get headlines, Avasare made three points. People reasoning linearly will underestimate how soon things arrive, while an exponential view makes them look closer. Internally, people believe these things more strongly than they say publicly, and external statements are sometimes softened so they don't sound over the top. Finally, echoing Ben Mann, he talks about a "race to the top": critics on the sidelines have no influence, while a leading, commercially successful player can push others in the game toward better practices. He adds that most people at the company are optimists who think the good outcome isn't guaranteed and too few informed people discuss the risks productively.

1:17:52

Advice for thriving as a PM or growth person

Avasare's first piece of advice is common but, he says, essential: use the tools, including Claude Code and Cowork, and retest with each model release. Something that failed on one model may work on the next, and if you don't go back, months can pass without you knowing. This also builds product sense for AI products.

Second, lean into where you have an unfair advantage and "almost forget the weaknesses." Some PMs excel at craft, others at getting a room full of strong-willed stakeholders moving the same way. Third, be interdisciplinary. A highly product-minded engineer is "an absolute unicorn," and so is a PM who can design when designers are stretched, and those people are much harder for a company to let go. He credits his own mix of founder, investment banking, and near-sales experience. He almost became an account executive instead of going into product. He also cites Nick Lin, who runs Anthropic's financial services products, including Claude for Excel, and came from investment banking and private equity.

Finally, be adaptable. He tells people joining Anthropic that "50, 60, 70% of how you operated in the past" should be thrown out, and that clinging to old playbooks creates a lot of friction.

1:23:13

Culture: notebook channels and talent density

Avasare calls Anthropic's culture its "secret sauce" and the hardest thing to replicate. He credits deliberate investment by Daniela and Dario Amodei. He admits he was skeptical when he joined, since he knew no one at the company, and says he found people were even more serious about the mission internally than externally. He says he hasn't met a single employee who is checked out, which is different from every previous job.

He describes an open Slack culture built around "notebook channels," which are personal feeds, something like an internal Twitter, where everyone shares their thinking. You can follow researchers' channels and learn about almost anything. People are encouraged to challenge leadership publicly. He recalled someone who disagreed with how Dario said something at an all-hands, posted about it in Dario's notebook channel, and started a big debate. For leaders, the channels also help spread principles as the company grows quickly. He cited his own recent post on the importance of leaving money on the table, which new growth engineers read and learned from. These documents also feed Claude. He says some onboarding documents carry HR notes asking people to check before editing because Claude references them.

On talent, he says he sometimes feels like he plays for Real Madrid. He names Ami Vora, Mike Krieger, his engineering counterpart Johnny, and Alexey Komissarouk. At a company offsite in October he met a man walking around alone eating popcorn and recognized him as Jeff, the former U.S. ambassador to Avasare's home country of Australia, now an employee.

Lenny asked why a company capable of building nearly anything still uses Slack, Workday, and Figma. Avasare called it "a really complicated picture." Anthropic builds some things internally, and Claude's ability to do so is growing, but he uses those products heavily, doesn't expect that to change soon, and thinks claims that such SaaS products will be replaced are partly overblown.

1:35:32

Failure: shutting down a funded startup

For "failure corner," Avasare described shutting down his startup. He and his co-founders spent three years on it, raised a couple million dollars, and peaked at seven to ten employees. The company worked on quantifying mental health to find early predictors of conditions such as generalized anxiety and major depression. He says they were in their early twenties and had "no idea what we're doing," and that he would do many things differently.

His practical advice to founders is to send monthly investor updates even when things are going badly, because it avoids surprises, though he says the final call to announce the shutdown is still brutal. He says it took him years to get over it. Looking back, he credits the experience with teaching him the product skills and the cold emailing that made his later career possible, and says he is now grateful it failed the way it did.

1:39:12

The brain injury and "freedom through constraints"

In 2023, Avasare wrote a guest post for Lenny's newsletter about how a traumatic brain injury made him a better PM. In early 2022, after years of MMA and Muay Thai, he took a kick to the head during an ordinary sparring session. He was off work for nine months, and it took about half a year before he was comfortable walking. For the first two to three months, his wife did everything beyond showering and using the bathroom, including texting his friends. About 20 seconds of music made him nauseous, and he couldn't look at screens. For a while it wasn't clear he would work again, and they discussed what they would do if he couldn't. Recovery meant slowly raising his tolerance to each stimulus without pushing so hard that he had a setback.

He also shared something Lenny didn't know. About a month after the post was published, and a month into his job at Mercury, he was reinjured when bags hit his head while he was getting off a plane. He explains that until a brain injury is fully healed, the risk of another one stays elevated. That led to another long leave and recovery. He says he is still not 100% healed and sometimes has dizziness and headaches that he works around.

Even so, he calls the injury one of the best things that could have happened to him, while acknowledging that such a view can be taken to the point of denying reality. He doesn't drink alcohol or caffeine. He takes a short break every morning and afternoon, even on model launch days, often in the office meditation area. He does at least one meditation retreat a year, and Lenny mentioned both have attended Spirit Rock. He describes a gap between awareness and reality, and says "reality's insane" at Anthropic. Deep meditation, he says, taught him to find choice in that gap, which helps him keep a level head without unhealthy coping mechanisms.

He returned to the theme of freedom through constraints. During the injury he did everything he could, including diet and exercise, but faced a choice between fighting reality and suffering, or accepting it and not letting outcomes decide his happiness. He cited a meditation teacher who said true freedom is learning to be content when you don't get what you want. He says he isn't perfect at it, but calls it perhaps the biggest lesson of that period.

Lightning round

Avasare recommended The Joy of Living by Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche, Awareness by Anthony de Mello, and, for product work, Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, whose habit of putting a probability on vague claims like "I don't know if it'll get done in time" he finds useful. His recent favorite movie was Marty Supreme, and his TV pick was the Olympics. His favorite product was a bead-filled pillow from a Japanese hotel whose height adjusts as he sleeps. He named it as a Maruhachi pro pillow, available in Japan and shipped to the U.S. His mottos are the Australian "she'll be right," and "sometimes in life you just have to go for it," a push he credits to Eros Resmini, former CMO of Discord and an advisor during his founder years. With little time for hobbies, he watches football as a Michigan Wolverines and 49ers fan, a habit that started when his wife took him to a game at the Big House.

He closed by saying the growth team is hiring across engineering, product, and design, and asked listeners for harsh feedback on Anthropic's products and referrals of strong candidates.