Claire Vo on Writing Your Last Roadmap

Open on YouTube ↗
Overview

At Lenny and Friends Summit, Claire Vo, a product leader with more than two decades in the field and the builder of ChatPRD, followed up on last year's provocation. A year ago she told this audience that product management was dead. She now jokes that she likes to make grand statements and then be "proved completely wrong in the market." PM is clearly not dead, she said, but it has changed dramatically since the last summit. This year her target is the roadmap, "the defining artifact of our industry, of our careers." Her central question is what should guide teams once AI makes nearly anything buildable. Her answer is that the constraint is no longer code but conviction and evidence, and that the feature-and-date roadmap has become actively dangerous.

15 min read
1:59

A confession: unlimited execution, no good ideas

Vo opened with what she called a confession. She is shipping more than ever. She has access to the most capable coding agents, the best developer tools, smart models, and customer context available "via API, via CLI, via MCP." She writes many skills and counted 40 bots running for her. She can build almost anything.

Her "true true confession" was that she is out of good ideas. She stressed that she does not lack plausible requests or things she could build. Her problem is that execution has outrun her ability to discover meaningful, "meaty," commercializable products. She has never been in this situation before.

She described the old world for contrast. Engineering capacity used to be the scarce resource, which she said is largely why product managers exist. Teams had far more ideas and demand than they could deliver. The PM's job was to prioritize, sequence, and spend most of their time in meetings, Slack, and spreadsheets saying no, drawing aggressive cut lines and stack ranks. In her caricature, engineering's job was to say "no, not like that," with fewer features and less perfect architecture, and design's job was to say "wait for us." Everyone was constrained by precious engineering capacity until only a sliver of the roadmap shipped.

Now, she said, she has more execution capacity than true conviction about what to build. Her bottleneck has moved from what she can build to what she believes is worth building. She described herself as "the biggest token maxer on the planet," with PRs up 3x, agents everywhere, no need for PMs or specs. Still, she argued that the gap between building capacity and heartfelt conviction that any of the code matters is a much bigger problem than people admit. Boards, timelines, bosses, and peers are all pushing teams to move faster and prove they are AI-native. She acknowledged that her own talk last year contributed to that pressure. She then posed the question she thinks matters: of everyone shipping more than ever, whose revenue is rising in proportion to their PR count?

6:11

The product graph that belonged "in the trash"

To make this concrete, she told the story of a feature she built for ChatPRD called the product graph. She admitted the idea was not special, since "everybody's done it." The plan was to ingest everything a company knows about its customers and its work, parse it, put Opus on it, and expose it through agents so teams could make better decisions, build better products, and write better PRDs.

She built it: an insights engine, a semantic product graph, an auto-generated wiki that agents could consume. She said it was nearly a one-shot build. It worked, looked good, and matched competitors feature for feature. Yet each time she rebuilt it, her reaction was that it "belongs in the trash."

Her reasoning was that it was competitive but not differentiated. There was clearly a market, customers said it was interesting, and people would probably want it. But she did not feel it was worth her customers' attention. The ROI seemed shaky. She was unsure about the interface. It still had a web UI, and she wondered whether it should be agent-first. She wanted to build something surprising that competitors couldn't imagine. Her key point was that spending tokens and executing the roadmap had carried out her bet without testing, validating, or strengthening her conviction.

8:03

The AI factory that ran itself

Meanwhile the rest of her operation kept shipping. Customer fixes were automated: issues arrived, went to one of her bots, and got fixed. Tech debt was being "obliterated." She said she rearchitected ChatPRD "70 times because I could." Her team stopped tracking issues and just shipped PRs. The AI factory, she said, "manifested and started running itself," doing exactly what everyone hopes for. "It's magical."

Then came the secret: she is not yet convinced any of it mattered. That doubt led her to reconsider what product management is for, how decisions and prioritization work, and how to allocate tokens. It brought her back to the roadmap.

9:00

Why roadmaps worked under scarcity

In her account, roadmaps made sense when engineering was scarce. They laid out strategy, listed features, and relied on a concept called "effort," which meant more than voice-noting a request to an agent. Teams thought carefully about sequencing, milestones, and MVPs. Scarcity also helped filter out bad ideas, "theoretically, let's be honest," because the bottom of the list never shipped. Below the cut line, there were not enough engineers and not enough organizational conviction. "Now we can ship all our bad ideas," she said. "Congratulations to us." Cheap execution, in her view, still needs judgment.

10:05

Three traps

Vo argued that a roadmap combined with seemingly limitless execution creates three traps.

The backlog trap. If you have a backlog, AI will build all of it. She hears many teams say they have burned through their backlog because all it takes is telling an agent to go build it. But clearing requests and ideas is not meaningful progress for the business, or even against a customer problem.

The parity trap. She felt this one directly with the product graph. Competitors copy each other, talk to the same customers, ingest the same insights, reach the same obvious conclusions, and build the same obvious products. They then polish everything the same way: run a taste skill, run Impeccable, remove the em dashes, remove the borders. Competitive dynamics that used to be interesting are evening out. What counts as a moat or differentiator is, she said, a big open question for her.

The churn trap. A team ships something, sees noise or some pickup or nothing, and because it can always ship something else, abandons it. It never learns or builds on what it shipped.

All three feel productive from the inside: the backlog shrinks, competitive features grow, output is at record levels. Her warning was that they "accelerate our path to mid."

12:22

"Roadmap zero"

She named the condition she is observing "roadmap zero." She did not mean an empty backlog, though she said some teams really have reached that. She meant that every visible feature is now both plausible and buildable. When everything on the backlog can be done, she asked, what is the backlog for?

In her view, buildability and effort no longer serve as meaningful proxies for what matters, and prioritization as the industry has practiced it stops being strategy. Teams still run RICE scoring, but when several of its inputs, especially effort, mean little, she questioned why anyone pretends prioritization is the right frame.

This is why she called roadmaps dangerous, not just outdated. An AI factory fed by an old-style roadmap will lead teams into all three traps "at machine speed," because the factory cannot tell a consequential bet from a mere idea. AI makes the consequences of weak judgment arrive faster, so bad ideas become real problems sooner than ever.

13:45

The remaining constraint is truth

In place of the roadmap, she asked a different question: what do you believe strongly enough to go out and try to prove? The remaining constraint, she said, is not code, building, or features. It is truth: on-the-ground truth with customers. AI cannot turn an untested assumption into fact, "no matter how many adversarial reviews you do." Teams need real customers, real data, repeated tests, a distinctive point of view, and a high quality bar.

AI does allow faster contact with reality, which she welcomed. But she said that raises the obligation to actually engage with reality: to get into the market and accept what it says. She acknowledged this sounds retro to veterans who have long preached "outcomes over outputs," while the central artifact still lists features and dates. Engineering scarcity once made that workable. Under roadmap zero, she argued, a feature list becomes "ammunition for a very powerful slop cannon." The shift she wants is upstream, from what we need to build to what we need to prove.

15:30

What to do instead: conviction, evidence, factory, allocation

She laid out an alternative cycle:

  1. Build convictions. Decide the direction and what you believe the future looks like, not in three, six, or nine months, but in one or two years.
  2. Define evidence up front. Decide what you would need to see to prove you are right, and what would make you stop.
  3. Use the factory. She was clear she is not abandoning it. "I love something dangerous." Fast building is what lets teams hit reality quickly. The point is to place it correctly in the process.
  4. Allocate. Once you have contact with reality, direct investment, conviction, effort, and tokens accordingly.

The principle she emphasized most was "durable convictions but disposable features." She mentioned that Mara, a later speaker, objected that enterprises love feature roadmaps. Vo responded that some companies have already changed features and products around consumers repeatedly, and that consumers, at least some, have accepted that churn. She expects customers and teams to shift toward asking whether to bet on a conviction, a team, a space, or a vision, while accepting that features come and go and may be unique to a customer or market. Her goal: clear progress against convictions, "zero ego about your solutions."

17:17

Good stubborn and bad stubborn

Holding durable convictions requires stubbornness, and she distinguished two kinds. Good stubborn means staying with the problem, revising the solution, and holding to your view of the future even when some trend of the week is popular. Bad stubborn means using abundant tokens to move the goalposts: "we're close, we'll just ship again," over and over. She asked the audience to consider which kind they practice, and how to build systems that can absorb disposable features while keeping rigor around quality and learning.

18:03

Not every ship is a promise

She admitted this is scary when it reaches customers, but she believes we are moving to a world where not everything shipped is a promise. She recalled the old way: going to the go-to-market team "hand on heart" and swearing a feature would ship with specific functionality on a specific date so it could go in contracts. Today, she said, many releases are truly experiments. You might be wrong, the market might shift, or the technology might change dramatically.

She proposed being explicit about the level of commitment behind each release:

  • Probe: a bet, a limited exploration.
  • Experiment against a conviction: something the team strongly believes in and will stay with until it gets it right.
  • Promise: shipped functionality customers can rely on and build their own customers on, which the team will keep compounding.

She called this perhaps the most useful lens for the new roadmap: how strong is our conviction, and how durable is this promise, as opposed to how hard is it to build and what is the estimated impact. Throughout, she said, remember that "code is abundant, customer trust is not."

That, she explained, is why the product graph stayed feature-flagged off despite repeated rebuilds. She knew that once customers saw it, they would build on it and use it. If she lacked conviction that it was right, she would burn their trust.

20:02

From the velocity game to the ambition game

Vo said she still thinks teams need a roadmap, but one built around ambition, and bigger. She does not want to see "onesie-twosies." She wants to see the future a team believes should exist, the evidence that shows progress, what would prove the team wrong, and what earns more time, tokens, and customer attention.

She described the past 12 to 18 months as "the year of our Claude": PMs writing PRs, prototypes everywhere, a pure velocity game. Faster prototypes meant faster customer feedback. Faster handoffs meant faster PRs. Agents handled tech debt and features. She thinks that period built real muscle for high velocity, but does not think velocity is the game for next year. Next year, she argued, is the ambition game. What huge swings can a team make? What experiments can it run in two or three weeks that previously would have taken a year? How does it build a roadmap of very large investments in very ambitious builds? She considers that more important than raw feature velocity, and does not think the current roadmap format serves it.

She told of a conversation with someone asking what OKRs should track an AI transformation, with PRs or revenue per headcount as candidates. Vo's suggestion was to count how many huge experiments the team runs per month, assuming most will fail. She said she doesn't care what the experiments are and doesn't know what they should be. The model is "big on the ambition and very fuzzy on the specifics."

22:18

The ask: write your last roadmap

She closed with a request she also called a gift: build your last roadmap. She was explicit that this does not mean your last plan. It means no more spreadsheets of ideas and features with guessed impact and dates, locked in with a promise never to change. Instead, she urged the audience to raise their conviction and ambition, come up with big ideas, and define success a year or two out. She acknowledged this means making big guesses, since she herself can't tell what will happen in a week or two.

The goal, she said, is a factory that can surprise you, the willingness to discard software, and a high bar for that factory. Teams will write a lot of code and throw it away, which she called good, because customers don't need trash products. AI will have better ideas than the team, also good, but it must be held to a very high bar. And teams won't be able to promise colleagues or customers what next year looks like. Her response: "Good. Because it's probably going to be better than you can imagine right now."