Tech Workers Split in Two: Noam Segal on Burnout, AI, and the End of the Honeymoon

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Overview

Noam Segal has led research at Airbnb, Meta, Twitter, Zapier, Intercom, and Figma, and was Lenny Rachitsky's research partner at Airbnb about a decade ago. The two now run an annual Tech Worker Sentiment Survey, a quantitative study of how people in tech feel about their jobs, AI, layoffs, burnout, and their careers. This episode covers the second year's results. Segal's framing throughout is that the survey measures how people feel, not what is objectively happening to their roles. His headline reading of the data is that AI has become the dominant force shaping those feelings, and that it is splitting the workforce almost exactly in half.

25 min read
3:20

Scope of the survey and last year's baseline

The first survey, run a year earlier, was titled "burnt out but optimistic." It found high burnout alongside fairly healthy optimism about the future. The burnout finding was concerning enough that the two published follow-up research and a framework for dealing with it, which Segal refers to as the ARMOR framework.

This year's survey drew about 6,000 respondents from product, engineering, design, research, marketing, data, sales, and other functions. Segal says he knows of no other survey of this kind at this scale. He contrasts it with the twice-yearly engagement surveys most tech employees fill out at work, which in his view rarely go deeper than rating a manager or leadership.

He also sets the results against the "AI confidence theater" described in a recent post by Elena Verna: the pattern where conversations in tech declare everything dead (engineering, design, SaaS). Segal says the survey offers a more honest picture of how people actually feel about AI than those public performances do.

6:15

The core finding: AI identity splits the workforce

The central question asked how AI has shifted respondents' professional identity, if at all. Only 3% said it hasn't shifted at all, which Segal reads as evidence that AI has changed how almost everyone sees themselves.

About 50% said they feel amplified: able to do more and do it better. Segal calls this a wholly positive response. The other half splits into three groups:

  • Redefined (27%): people who know their role is fundamentally changing but have no clear positive or negative feeling about it. They simply don't understand what the change means.
  • Destabilized (14%): people who feel the ground shaking beneath them, report high anxiety and little clarity, and hold pessimistic views of what's coming.
  • Diminished (5%): people who feel AI has taken something away from them. Segal notes that since AI models are "the worst they'll ever be," this group will probably only feel more diminished over time.

To convey how large this effect is, Segal distinguishes statistical significance from effect size. With a big enough sample, he explains, almost anything becomes statistically significant, whether or not it matters in practice. An effect size measure such as Cohen's d shows how much a factor actually matters. Last year the two largest effects were manager effectiveness and a "founder happiness effect." Current founders were markedly happier, which Segal attributes to their agency and autonomy. This year, he reports, the effect of AI identity on the other job variables is about three times as large as either of those. He describes it as an outlier-level impact, bigger than role, company, company size, or seniority.

The identity stance lines up with every other core measure. Moving from "amplified" to "diminished," career optimism drops significantly, reported burnout rises, and layoff worry rises. Willingness to recommend one's role to someone entering the industry falls as well. Segal stresses how linear and orderly these relationships are, and says that is what convinced him of AI's influence. Lenny admits he expected a divide but was surprised it came out so close to 50/50.

14:41

Four emotional archetypes

The survey also asked respondents to select the emotions they feel about work. They could pick as many as they wanted. On average people chose five, and a few chose thirteen. Clustering these answers produced four archetypes.

The Energized (41%) say product work has become fun again. They describe feeling like they are in a "tech amusement park," free to experiment, suddenly builders with powers they never had before.

The Conflicted (35%), which Segal calls the ambivalent middle, are having the most fun of their careers as PMs, designers, or engineers while also feeling the most uncertain they have ever felt. They wonder whether they are building the things that will end their careers as they know them.

The Disoriented feel their role keeps shifting. One respondent compared people in tech to farmers on the cusp of the industrial revolution who can't see where things are going.

The Resentful (12%) feel pressured and checked out. They say things like: they've been forced to use AI or lose their job, they still see people lose their jobs even when they use it, and they hate having to lean on the technology instead of doing their own work.

Lenny's takeaway is that people on either side of the split may find it hard to picture how the other side feels, so empathy matters. Segal agrees. He argues that with the technology changing so fast, too much attention goes to mastering each new model, release, or technique ("loop engineering, whatever the next thing will be next week"). Too little goes to relationships, supporting colleagues, and collaborating with people who experience AI differently. He asks energized people in particular to spend some of that energy on the people around them instead of going all-in on the next AI development.

19:38

Burnout surges while optimism falls

Segal says he had hoped optimism would hold steady and burnout wouldn't rise, reasoning that more capable models might mean people didn't have to work as hard. The data went the other way. The share reporting significant burnout (above moderate) rose from 44.7% in 2025 to 54.7% in 2026, which means more than half the sample is now significantly burnt out. Career optimism fell from 54.8% to 48.7% over the same period. Lenny calls the ten-point jump in burnout in a single year worrisome.

Segal links this to an earlier episode with Geoff Charles of Ramp, who said his worst burnout came when velocity was lowest. That fits theories that tie burnout to stagnation, effort that goes nowhere. Segal thinks the current situation is the opposite. People are shipping faster than ever, going from a couple of PRs a day to thirty. That can be fun, but they aren't working any less. They are taking on more prototypes, PRDs, PRs, campaigns, agents, and ads, and the data suggests this is producing more burnout.

A glimmer of hope: enjoyment holds

Lenny points to one countervailing finding: job enjoyment stayed about as high as last year. Segal says respondents gave two main reasons.

First, people can express parts of their professional identity that used to be locked away. A PM with an inner designer, or a marketer who always wanted to be an engineer, can now act on that. People are "escaping our classic swim lanes," and part of each role is turning into something else. Second, people can build things that recently seemed impossible, at work or on the side, because they previously fell outside their role or felt technically infeasible.

25:17

Layoff worry and clashing emotions

72% of respondents are worried to some extent about being laid off, and 41.2% are at least moderately worried. Segal describes people feeling that by using AI they may be "cutting the branch that they're sitting on," as they watch their companies go all-in on agents.

Asked how to reconcile widespread enjoyment with rising burnout and falling optimism, Segal speaks personally. He says he has never had as much fun in his career as he has using these tools, and he spends too many hours a day playing and building with them. He calls the technology somewhat addictive and says it is hard to disengage and "touch grass." It is also tiring: constantly learning, constantly applying the tools in new contexts, constantly taking on more than a traditional role required. In his view, "there aren't any traditional roles anymore," and everyone is now a builder in practice. The technology is exciting because it is powerful, and that same power is what makes people feel it might come for their jobs. (He jokes about growing up on the Terminator films and Skynet.)

29:23

Nobody would recommend their role

Segal is known in the research community as an opponent of Net Promoter Score. He runs npsistheworst.com and even bought a domain making the opposite claim, which he redirects to his anti-NPS site. Even so, he and Lenny wanted to know whether experienced people would recommend their role and the tech industry to a friend or relative entering it today.

He explains the scale: individuals answer from 0 to 10, and the aggregate NPS ranges from −100 to +100, with zero meaning the group as a whole is neutral. The result he calls "absolutely shocking" is that no group scored as a promoter of its role. That includes founders, even though they are by far the happiest group. Sales and go-to-market, PMs, operations, and engineering all came in negative. Designers and researchers were the least likely to recommend their roles. Segal summarizes the mood as: the water in this pool is kind of okay, but you shouldn't come in.

Lenny notes the contrast with the popular narrative that there has never been a better time to be a founder, with solo and two-person companies now possible. Segal adds that willingness to recommend declines with seniority: executives, VPs, and perhaps directors are more positive than ICs. One explanation he has heard is that leaders benefit most from AI because it processes a stream of information for them. ICs, meanwhile, are each scrambling to build micro-SaaS tools inside their companies, often duplicating each other's work, with products that are easy to build but hard to maintain. He describes the IC feeling as "full gas on neutral": pedal to the metal, going nowhere, lots of building without the desired impact.

As a parent, Segal says he no longer knows what to tell his kids to study. Tech workers likewise can't tell newcomers that things will be great in five years. Lenny says this is not a result they would have seen a year or two ago.

36:48

The ladder metaphor

Segal borrows a metaphor from Lenny's earlier conversation with Scott Wu of Cognition, maker of Devin. Wu described the product climbing a ladder from high school CS student to college intern to junior engineer, and by now perhaps senior or staff level. Segal says tech workers are watching AI climb those rungs and feel it is pulling them out from under their feet. Those higher up feel more stable and better about their careers. Those lower down feel the rungs disappearing, which in his reading explains why people would not recommend getting on the ladder at all.

On which roles scored relatively better, Segal says PMs being somewhat less negative makes sense to him because PM is a generalist role, and he considers this "the era of the generalist." Sales and go-to-market surprised him most. If there really were a "SaaS apocalypse," which he personally doesn't believe, he wouldn't expect sales people to feel as positive as they do. Perhaps, he speculates, they believe sales can't be done by AI.

Speaking as a researcher, Segal says the design and research results hurt. The research community has long lived with anxiety about having a seat at the table, finding meaning, and the "democratization of research" leading to replacement. He argues that as the technology advances, teams should become more thoughtful about what they build, not less. He rejects the idea that because building is cheap, teams should build a thousand prototypes and see what works, and predicts that approach would only deepen burnout. In his framing, AI has mostly lowered the bar but hasn't raised the ceiling, and research and design are what raise it.

Both hosts stress that this is a picture of feelings, not a verdict that any function is disappearing. Lenny also highlights that when asked about their current role, most people said they are doing okay and enjoying it. Segal explains the gap as the difference between people's present experience, shaped by where they already are on the ladder, and their extrapolation of where things will be in one, three, or five years. That extrapolation is clearly more negative. "I hope we're all wrong," he says.

45:21

Faster, not better

Asked how much better AI makes them at their jobs, 97.2% said at least somewhat better. 82% said at least moderately better, and close to 50% said very much or extremely better. Segal says this was bullish at first glance, and last year's survey had also found people positive about AI improving both productivity and quality.

The open-ended explanations told a different story. Segal had assumed "better" meant higher-quality work. Instead, people described two concerns. The first was more and faster, but not better: far more PRs, PRDs, research projects, and prototypes, with no rise in quality. The second, which he calls more concerning, was a cost to thinking and judgment. Respondents said, in effect, "my brain is rotting, my work feels worse." Segal connects this to what he has heard called cognitive rot: accepting a model's first output without applying judgment, and letting one's agency in the work slowly collapse.

Lenny sees some positives here. People feel more capable, and they are self-aware about quality and skill atrophy rather than claiming everything is better. Segal, drawing on his training as a coach, says awareness isn't enough; people need to act. One explanation he offers for the shift is that "the honeymoon period with AI is over." People thought it was perfect, then realized that despite constant improvement, models aren't yet good enough to make their work straightforwardly better without their involvement. He cites Simon Willison's comments on the show about resisting skill atrophy and says the data suggests "we're losing that fight a little bit." Keeping up as the bar rises, he argues, requires deliberate practice, thinking, and judgment.

Lenny compares it to eating Doritos: if there's an easy button, people press it. He wonders how junior people will learn to code or write a PRD from scratch. Segal adds that people miss feeling smart. Encountering models like Fable 5 can erode a sense of self-efficacy. Every time you solve a problem yourself, your baseline self-confidence rises. Every time you offload it, that baseline drops, and so do your thinking and judgment. Lenny reads a line from the written report: the productivity gains are real, but the quality of the work and the sharpness of the person producing it are taking a hit. He jokes that humans need evals too.

52:54

The number-one fear: doing more for the same pay

Given how much public discussion centers on replacement, Segal expected fear of losing one's job to AI to rank high. When respondents were asked what worries them, it came second to last. The top fear was the expectation to do more for the same pay, which Segal describes as being squeezed again and again to accomplish more in less time. Second was that the pace is becoming unsustainable. That means both the expected velocity of output and the pace of technological change, which forces people to spend time learning new models and frameworks at the expense of focused work. He calls this a downward spiral that leaves people feeling they can't accomplish anything meaningful. Lenny reads another line from the report: the speed AI unlocked got plowed straight back into expectations, every gain becomes the new baseline, and the people expected to hit it are running out of room to breathe.

55:58

Ambivalence and "smiling exhaustion"

The emotion data offered some good news: the two most common emotions were positive, curiosity and excitement. Further down the list came a mix: overwhelmed, conflicted, relieved (at what people have been able to offload to AI), tired, burnt out, uneasy, anxious, and hopeful.

Segal borrows the term "smiling exhaustion" from Nikhyl Singhal's appearance on the podcast. Old-style burnout, he says, was grim and rooted in disengagement. The new version involves people feeling almost reborn, shipping and building again, but with no off switch, a brutal tempo, and rules that rewrite themselves daily.

His broader point is that people aren't simply hype merchants or doomers. Behind the theatrics Elena Verna described, everyone carries some of both, in different proportions. He tells listeners it's fine to feel excited and overwhelmed, relieved and tired, or resentful while still feeling positive overall. Those feelings can coexist, and there's nothing wrong with holding them together.

1:01:04

Designers, researchers, and data analysts

For the second year running, designers and researchers were the most negative group. They had the highest shares feeling destabilized or diminished, led on tired, overwhelmed, and anxious, were near the top in worry about losing their jobs to AI, and were the least likely to recommend their roles. Lenny points out that on the specific fear of losing one's job to AI, data analysts were even more worried. Segal attributes that to the strong AI capabilities emerging for data analysis. He had expected engineering to score higher on some measures given advances in coding, which he takes as further evidence that feelings don't map one-to-one onto actual AI capability.

Acknowledging he isn't objective, Segal tells designers and researchers he believes there has never been a more important time for their work. He cites conversations on the show with Linear's CEO Karri Saarinen on quality, Katie Dill on taste and beauty, and Jenny Wen, who leads design for Claude at Anthropic. Lenny adds that a recent guest, the head of the Codex app, discussed how AI is still poor at design and how AI-made design is recognizable. Lenny had hoped this would make design a differentiator amid generic "AI slop," and is optimistic that will happen. Segal recalls that some of AI's design limitations came across in that conversation as tractable, while others seemed much harder, and says creating novel, creative experiences is still beyond the technology. He hopes the design and research community's outlook turns around next year.

1:06:34

Who's happiest: founders and small companies

As last year, founders and people at small companies are the happiest. Segal cautions about selection bias: the sample reflects founders whose startups are still running, not those who shut down. Founders lead on nearly every measure. They are 71% optimistic, enjoy their jobs most, have the lowest burnout and layoff worry, and the most AI excitement. Segal calls this a medium-sized effect. Agency has limits, though: 47% of founders are still at least moderately burnt out, and even founders aren't likely to recommend founding a company. Lenny adds that this may reflect the current moment and could change if the market shifts, so it doesn't mean founding a company will make someone happy.

Company size shows a strikingly linear pattern. As companies grow from 1–10 people to 5,000–10,000-person enterprises, optimism falls, burnout rises, layoff worry rises, and willingness to recommend one's role falls. The two largest size bands are within the margin of error of each other. Lenny notes there's no sweet spot; it just keeps getting worse. Segal stresses that even the lowest burnout levels, at the smallest companies, are high enough to worry him. He says the "vibe" in tech feels very different from their Airbnb days. In relative terms, though, moving to a smaller company or starting something may be worth considering. Lenny muses about running the survey outside tech; Segal jokes that his HVAC technician in Florida is feeling great about his career.

1:12:21

Managers: the biggest lever

Manager effectiveness remained one of the largest effects in the data. The more effective people rate their manager, the lower their burnout and the higher their enjoyment. Those with extremely effective managers report around 65% higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower burnout. But supply is short. Only about 25% rate their manager as highly effective and 36% rate theirs as ineffective, barely changed from last year. The worst-rated managers cluster in data analytics and design.

Segal raises two concerns. First, in the era of the "great flattening" and "founder mode," managers have more direct reports than ever. He acknowledges the arguments for flat organizations but questions where this leads, given how much managers matter. Second, the manager is the person who most controls the squeeze: they protect you, or they largely determine how overworked you are. He suspects some of the negative trends are a function of what companies are doing to managers. On the clustering in design and analytics, he doesn't claim a clear explanation, but suggests managers in those struggling functions are suffering too, and some of that negativity inevitably passes to their teams. He urges leaders to invest in manager training, which he says is still too rare, and urges job seekers to think carefully about who their manager will be. Lenny adds that retaining good managers is harder now that AI labs are poaching talent with large offers.

1:18:49

"Chaotic": how people describe the industry

Asked in open-ended form to describe the state of the industry, respondents produced a word cloud of change, chaos, speed, excitement, flux, hype, instability, bubble, and opportunity. Segal shares two quotes. One: "We're in the second inning of a massive shift. No one knows how it will end, but all you can do is keep taking at bats." The other, from a senior PM, said tech is manic: half are out of touch and clinging to the overhype bandwagon, and the other half are exhausted by the first half. Sentiment analysis of the responses came out at 37% positive, 37% negative, and about 26% neutral. Segal reads this as another even split: everyone is seeing the same thing, but half find it thrilling and half find it terrifying.

Lenny cites Elon Musk's remark that we must be living in a simulation to be alive at the moment of data centers in space and human-level AI. Segal responds that, as a psychologist by training, his focus is people, not the universe. Access to the best models won't decide whether an organization succeeds, he says; the people living through this shift, excited and exhausted and hopeful and scared all at once, will.

1:24:56

What employees and leaders can do

Segal offers two sets of recommendations.

For employees:

  1. Go deep, not wide. People who feel amplified and energized report going deep on specific tasks and jobs to be done. Segal cautions against the narrative that everyone must now become a generalist who does everything while neglecting their core role. He believes that path leads to severe burnout.
  2. Watch the squeeze. Take the burnout test linked in the article, reflect on where you are, and realign scope with your manager if it has grown without any change in pay.
  3. Invest in your manager relationship. Build good communication and learn to manage up.
  4. Consider smaller companies or founding. The data suggests real advantages.
  5. Seek mentorship if you're early in your career. As the lower rungs disappear, look for teams, managers, and people willing to invest in your development.

For leaders:

  1. Invest in managers. Segal calls this possibly the best money a company will ever spend. He considers it a red flag that only a quarter rate their manager as highly effective, and says it matters especially for retention amid AI-lab job offers.
  2. Manage the squeeze. Set sustainable expectations for productivity rather than letting AI keep raising the bar.
  3. Don't let the bottom rung rot. Help entry-level people advance. Segal notes they are often among the most AI-native employees.
  4. Pay attention to design, research, and other struggling roles.
  5. Remember that AI is lifting some people and destabilizing others.

Lenny adds his own endorsement of the burnout test. He says he has gone through burnout without recognizing it, and that simply knowing you are severely burnt out lets you decide what to do, whether that's talking to a coach or manager or taking time off.

AI guilt

Segal closes with one more pattern: AI guilt. Early-career workers feel that using AI is a bit like cheating, and this guilt declines with seniority. It is highest in product marketing and data and analytics. He relates it to the impostor phenomenon, competent people feeling their success isn't really theirs, except that now the credit goes to a technology rather than to other people. His advice is not to feel guilty: learn to use AI, since it is unlikely to go away.

Lenny says they plan a follow-up based on listener comments, while acknowledging they won't have answers to everything. Segal describes himself as a techno-optimist despite the largely negative findings. He hopes the results turn out to be too pessimistic, and wants future surveys to capture it accurately if things do move in a good direction.