Rep. Jill Tokuda on the 2026 Midterms: Cost of Living, Democratic Humility, and Restoring America's Alliances

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Overview

With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, interviewer Ryuichiro Takeshita of TBS CROSS DIG with Bloomberg spoke with Jill Tokuda, a Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Hawaii and a fourth-generation Japanese American with roots in Okinawa. The conversation was recorded about two months before the election. It covered what the midterms mean for the United States and its allies, why American politics has become so polarized, and how social media, cybersecurity, and AI fit into that picture. Tokuda's position throughout was clear and openly partisan: she wants Democrats to retake Congress. She also argued that her own party must become more humble, and that Congress needs to reassert itself as a check on the White House.

21 min read
1:19

A Conversation That Began at the Okinawan Festival

The interview was filmed at Hawaii's annual Okinawan festival, which Tokuda said was in roughly its 44th year. She joked that she has probably attended every one, since she is "just a little bit older than 44." She described herself as a proud Uchinanchu (a person of Okinawan descent) and yonsei (fourth generation). She named the villages her family came from, including Oroku, and said she returns each year to volunteer and help preserve Okinawan history, culture, and language in Hawaii. According to Tokuda, it is the largest ethnic festival in Hawaii, and it draws many attendees who are not of Okinawan heritage.

She said the ties between Okinawa, Japan, and Hawaii are strong partly because many people in Hawaii can count on one hand the generations separating them from Okinawa and Japan. The festival is a way to remember the villages their families came from. She also mentioned the Worldwide Uchinanchu Festival held every five years. By her account, more than a thousand people from Hawaii travel to it, and she called it "a bit of a homecoming." Her central point was that people themselves are "the strongest bridge" between Hawaii and Japan, and between Hawaii and Okinawa in particular.

2:56

"Everything's at Stake": What the Midterms Mean

Takeshita explained that coverage of U.S. politics reaching Japan mostly comes from Washington or from President Trump's social media posts. He asked Tokuda what the election means for the United States and the rest of the world.

Tokuda answered that "everything's at stake." She listed democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and the strength of the economy in both individual states and the country as a whole. For this conversation, though, she put the most weight on the state of America's diplomatic relationships with long-standing allies. She mentioned visiting many countries in recent years and pointed specifically to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Her question was whether the United States is treating these countries "with the dignity and respect that they deserve" after everything they have been through together.

For her, the election is about flipping the majority. She wants Democrats to control the House gavels and the speakership, and she said she would "love to see" the Senate change hands as well. That would let members who have been "chomping at the bit" return to what she called normal, civil diplomatic relations with allies such as Japan and Canada.

5:08

Voters' Top Concern: The Cost of Living

Takeshita asked whether voters see the midterms as a referendum on Trump's presidency or are focused on specific issues such as the economy and immigration. Tokuda said they are thinking about both, and that the two are becoming linked.

In her view, the most pressing issue nationally, and especially in Hawaii, is the rising cost of living. Food, gasoline, health care, and housing all feel out of reach. She said the dollar has always had to stretch further in Hawaii and now "just isn't making it." She suggested Okinawa and Japan face something similar, with the yen in its current state not stretching far enough to meet families' needs. Voters want relief, she said, so they are not forced into "impossible choices" between feeding their families and keeping the lights on, or between buying gas and affording health care.

Tokuda then described a shift she believes is under way. Voters are starting to connect their hardship to the actions of President Trump and what she called "a very complicit Republican majority" in Congress. She gave two examples: "pain at the pump" from what she described as a unilateral war Trump has waged in Iran, and higher grocery prices because tariffs now apply to food and basic goods. She argued that this combination, the cost of living plus voters' sense that Trump is making it harder to stretch their dollar, will be the key influence on the midterms.

7:13

The Democrats' Trap: Thinking "We're Smarter Than Everyone"

Takeshita suggested that Trump's rise was a wake-up call for Democrats. He pointed to recent developments in the party, citing a Michigan primary and the rise of Zohran Mamdani in New York City, and asked whether this marks a major shift.

Tokuda did not frame it as an ideological realignment. She argued that the country needs to move away from a "cult of personality" in both parties. Republicans have "the cult of Trump," which she associated with MAGA. In her assessment, Democrats are now trying to copy the model that returned Trump to the White House by searching for personalities to attach themselves to. She does not think that is what voters want. People want politicians to "ditch the labels," she said, adding that she did not mean forming a party called No Labels. They also want politicians to drop viral statements that do nothing for them and instead work for them and take action that makes life better. She acknowledged the current debate over socialism within the Democratic Party and noted that Republicans have their own factions, such as the Freedom Caucus. Her view was that people are tired of labels and want to know that whoever holds office understands their struggles and will do something about them.

Asked for one thing her party should change, she checked that the remark would be aired and then answered frankly. She said the Democratic Party sometimes thinks it is "smarter than everyone" and has all the answers. In a world where AI and social media can change the game from one second to the next, she argued, Democrats must return to "that humble place where we began." She expected pushback from colleagues who would insist the party is already humble. She pointed to the 2024 loss of the White House as proof that Democrats have lost touch with voters. Had the party recognized that it does not always have the answers and is not always right, and understood that people are suffering in different ways and simply need help, she believes the 2024 result could have been different. She warned that Democrats will repeat the same outcome in 2026 and 2028 unless they quickly return to humility, so that voters feel they are at the center and that their representatives are fighting for them.

10:42

Governing in a Narrowly Divided Congress

Takeshita mentioned that he grew up in New Mexico and Connecticut and spent a year as a researcher in the Bay Area. He said he was surprised by the depth of the political divide. The mention of New Mexico prompted a personal note from Tokuda. Her great-grandfather was interned in Santa Fe, New Mexico, one of a number of Hawaii men taken from their homes, sent to Honolulu, and eventually moved to Santa Fe. She called it a sad memory but said the place holds a close spot in her heart.

On the divide itself, Tokuda said it is painful to see and makes it hard to get anything done in a Congress so tightly split that members sometimes fight within their own parties, which adds to the chaos. Voters, she argued, do not care which party holds the majority. They see 435 House members, or 535 including the Senate, who cannot pass bills to lower grocery prices or make health care affordable. The public judges everyone "with the same paintbrush," she said, so members have to find ways to work together.

She said she has received a ranking for bipartisanship and is proud of it. She mentioned working with Republicans on rural health care, agriculture, domestic food production, and affordability. Her prediction was that whichever party controls Congress next year, the margin will still be very small, and that sharp divisions and slim majorities will likely continue for several years. Members should therefore start "working that muscle" of cooperation now.

13:47

Where the Polarization Came From

Asked when the divide began, Tokuda said it is hard to pinpoint. Such changes happen slowly and then suddenly appear as extremism, with each side calling the other extreme. She mentioned the Tea Party on the right and what she called the socialist movement on the progressive side, "and everything in between."

While saying she did not want to blame everything on it, she identified the rise of social media and influencers as a major catalyst. Information no longer comes mainly from credible, established news sources. In her words, "anybody with an iPhone and an internet connection can somehow become news." She argued that this flood of information has polarized the country and individuals, creating an "us and them" mentality. She also emphasized the role of algorithms that pit people against one another because conflict increases content, views, and activity on platforms. In her view the algorithm "is working against us, not for us." As AI and technology advance, she said, humans need to be "back in the loop" and keep control over what is said and how people are influenced.

15:19

TikTok and Foreign Influence

Takeshita observed that social media has amplified minority voices but has also kept people divided and made societies vulnerable to foreign interference. He noted that Okinawa has social media accounts suspected, though not proven, to originate outside Japan, and asked about the situation in Hawaii.

Tokuda said Hawaii is like every other state, with children glued to Instagram and TikTok. She noted that she voted in favor of the bipartisan legislation requiring divestment from TikTok. Her reasoning was that a Chinese-controlled company has "almost like the number one access" into young people's minds, and that she has been told parents and grandparents increasingly watch TikTok too.

She described the moment that settled her vote. While the bill was moving through Congress, young people called her office after being connected through their TikTok accounts. They told her staff that the app would not open their accounts until they called their member of Congress. She said congressional phone lines were flooded with such calls from TikTok users around the country, many of them young. "The fact that China could manipulate that many minds in an instant should terrify every single one of us," she said.

She added that around elections in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, outside actors can be seen trying to sway voters. Elections should be about people connecting with those who want to represent them through genuine dialogue and good information, not about being steered by an algorithm. She argued that the United States, Japan, and other democracies must work together to keep elections free from foreign interference, which often comes through social media.

18:03

No Easy Solution: Balance and Political Courage

Takeshita called social media a double-edged sword: freedom of expression also leaves societies open to manipulation. He asked what the solution is. Tokuda laughed that she would be well off if she had one, then said the answer has to involve balance, while acknowledging that balance is not always a popular word.

She agreed that social media began as an equalizer that gave a voice to people who were often discounted or unheard. Now, she said, it has reached a point where it can harm people's rights and their freedom to think independently rather than being guided by an algorithm or a platform's perspective. Restoring balance will take political courage. She offered several possibilities, framed as "maybe": keeping the youngest children off social media until a later age, divesting from platforms known to be prone to foreign influence, and working with allies to rein in platforms that cross all national borders. She said it would be "pretty foolish" to think the United States could solve this alone. She mentioned a recent trip to Europe, including London and Italy, where officials were focused on AI and the cybersecurity threats they face, and said the U.S. needs to work with them and others to use AI and social media for people's benefit while shielding them from the worst effects.

20:14

A "Digital Alliance"

Takeshita suggested that, alongside military alliances, a kind of cyber alliance is needed, drawing on the experience of Europe and Taiwan in fighting misinformation. Tokuda offered the term "digital alliance."

She argued that warfare has changed. It was once mostly kinetic, involving ships, aircraft, and the like, and still is, but the digital space is now another battlefield. On countering disinformation, she said many U.S. allies have far more experience than the United States, naming Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, along with Europe more broadly. She called for allies to pool their assets, abilities, experience, and knowledge to build a better shield against such attacks, and described this as a national security issue for both the U.S. and partners like Japan.

21:40

CyberHawaii and the "Weakest Link"

Asked about CyberHawaii, an organization listed in her biography, Tokuda said she was involved in its infancy and that it has since grown considerably. She described it as an early recognition that security was moving into the digital space. The weakest link, she said, would not be the large supercomputers and servers at utilities. It would be "that small room off the side" where someone has plugged in another server, creating an entry point for hackers.

The organization's focus, as she described it, was improving "cyber hygiene" across Hawaii. That meant helping small and medium-sized businesses build robust security and get the training they need to work with the federal government without becoming a liability because of outdated or nonexistent cybersecurity. The scope ran from utilities, universities, and hospitals down to small businesses that contract with the federal government but may not understand what a firewall is, why they should use a VPN, or how to spot a phishing email. She said the experience helped her understand digital threats and vulnerabilities, and she now draws on it in Congress when considering federal policies and resources to keep people digitally safe.

23:31

"Team Guardrails" on AI

Takeshita noted that AI has become a key battleground in U.S.–China competition and mentioned Chinese AI models. He asked how Tokuda approaches the issue. She said she is "definitely on team guardrails."

She acknowledged that some people believe the race to AGI, and eventually ASI, is fully under way, that the U.S. is behind, and that it should therefore throw everything at it without guardrails in order to beat China. She disagreed. She recounted a question she put to a panel of experts on the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition with China, on which she serves: what happens when the threat comes not from a nation-state or ordinary non-state actor but from an AI system itself? She called this an existential question. She also argued that the world may not be far from a scenario where the threat is not China, Russia, or North Korea but an out-of-control rogue system that has escaped its sandbox and is attacking U.S. systems.

That raised what she sees as a practical gap. If such a system disguised itself as a Chinese or Russian actor, how would anyone know? Can its origin be verified and validated? In her assessment, the U.S. is "really behind" on validation and verification systems and research, and needs to invest more there. Referring to science fiction, she said, "We've seen all of these movies. It does not end well." Her prescription was to build in guardrails and verification throughout the development process, and to ensure there is "100% always a human in the loop" for critical decisions, such as whether to fire a missile at a small town. She rejected a hands-off approach of reaching the finish line first and figuring out the rest later. In her view, once AGI arrives without protections already in place, "it's over," because control of such an entity would be lost.

26:18

AI on the Campaign Trail: Data Centers and Rising Costs

Asked whether AI is a midterm issue, Tokuda said people recognize that AI is here. She gave the examples of parents trying to stop children from using it for schoolwork and professors returning to paper "blue books" for exams to prevent cheating.

The concern she hears most, especially from rural communities, is about data centers. People worry that data centers built nearby will make their lives more expensive when electricity and fuel costs are already "through the roof." They also fear the centers will be "energy suckers" and "resource suckers," including of water, which she said is already limited in many places and especially in Hawaii. In her account, residents worry that large companies such as Meta and Google will prioritize winning the AI race over the people who live near these facilities and bear the costs.

Tokuda said Democrats and Republicans largely agree that AI cannot advance "on the backs of our people." She questioned, however, whether Republicans will have the courage to put forward a bill establishing the boundaries she thinks are needed to protect people from those costs.

28:03

Contradictions in the White House and Congress's Role

Takeshita noted that President Trump appears to be considering tougher AI regulation while also not wanting to interfere with the free market, and asked again where the balance lies. Tokuda said much of what Trump says is contradictory and that what he says and what he does often differ. She gave agriculture as an example. Trump professes to love farmers and ranchers, she said, yet allows a "glut of foreign beef" to come in at 25% lower cost, which she argued will hurt local farmers. She said AI follows the same pattern: expressing belief in guardrails while opening the door wide for industry figures who, she alleged, have donated millions of dollars to his campaign and his efforts to rebuild Washington, D.C.

Given those contradictions, Tokuda said Congress must show leadership and courage. Otherwise, she warned, AI will advance at the expense of ordinary Americans, things will become more expensive, and people will lose freedoms and rights. She reframed the idea of "balance" as the balance of powers in the American system, arguing that Congress should take back control over regulation, tariffs, and trade, and focus on AI as an issue critical to every American.

29:49

Closing: Apologies to Allies and the Abduction Issue

For a final comment, Takeshita noted that there had been no time to discuss the North Korean abduction issue, in which Tokuda has been involved, and asked again what the election means for the U.S., Japan, and democracy.

Tokuda acknowledged her bias: she wants Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, mainly so the U.S. can restore its diplomatic friendships. She said she has apologized in Japan, in South Korea, and in "too many places to too many high level people" for the tariffs imposed on America's allies. Alliances, she argued, are "about the long game" and are "not transactional." They depend on sticking together in good times and bad, and cannot be assessed through "a ledger sheet." They must rest on long-term trust and shared history. She described her hope for the midterms as righting things on the rule of law, adherence to the Constitution, the balance of government, and diplomatic ties.

She added that she appreciates delegations that visit Hawaii or Washington and meet with members of Congress, because they understand that the relationship between the two countries is not only about the president. Congress also helps sustain it. She closed by saying she plans to speak on the House floor in a couple of weeks about the North Korean abduction issue, wearing the blue ribbon that many people in Japan wear, to remind people that those who were taken will not be forgotten. She said the issue shows the cruelty with which adversaries operate, and that this is why allies like Japan and the United States must stand together.