Sara Imari Walker on Assembly Theory: Life as Lineages of Propagating Information

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Overview

What is life, and why do we still lack a language for it? In this Long Now Talk, astrobiologist and theoretical physicist Sara Imari Walker argues that we understand life about as well as humanity understood gravity before there was a theory of gravity. She calls the work she presents "a work in progress." Its centerpiece is assembly theory, developed with chemist Lee Cronin and other collaborators. The theory proposes that complex objects can only be produced by evolution and selection, that this complexity can be measured, and that objects should be understood as the histories that built them. After the talk, host Benjamin Bratton, director of the Antikythera program at the Berggruen Institute, questioned Walker about technology, minds, falsifiability, and whether AI could count as life.

35 min read

A Host's Map of "Walkerism"

Bratton opened with what he called the key concepts of "Walkerism," offered as a guide to what was coming. He said astrobiology is not only about Martians or life in outer space. It is also about us, since we are an astrobiology ourselves. He said selection begins before biology and runs much deeper in time and process. He said "life" and "being alive" are different things. He described life as scaffolds building on scaffolds, becoming more complex over time, so that the newest thing is also the oldest: the complexity in an object reflects how much time it took to evolve. On that view, the most complex things in the universe, such as our technosphere, are the oldest.

Bratton added that, in this framework, technologies are a form of life, and a form we think through. They let us see the world differently and then remake it. The basic unit of life is not the cell but something closer to the whole planet. Finally, he suggested that discovering life, which in Walker's view has not yet happened, will be more like discovering gravity than finding an organism.

We Don't Yet Understand What We Are

Walker framed her research as an attempt to build new languages for understanding ourselves. Her analogy was gravity. Before there was a theory, people could not see that planetary motion in the night sky and the force holding them to the ground were the same phenomenon. In her view, we are in that position with life.

She started from the question "Are we alone in the universe?" People usually approach it through the size of space. The Hubble Deep Field covers a tiny patch of sky yet contains millions of galaxies, each with billions of stars. Walker said she had been told throughout her career that life must be common, given all that territory. But the only planet we know to be inhabited is this one. She described answering the question as a problem on the scale of centuries or millennia, and said she hopes her generation can move it forward.

Models of the Universe and Their Concepts of Time

Walker then looked at how we model the universe. Today we collect telescope data and build simulations of it. She observed that a spatial map of galaxies resembles a cellular automaton, a simple computational model popular in complex systems research. Her example was Conway's Game of Life, where people have been discovering patterns for decades. These models assume the kind of dynamical system Newton introduced: an initial condition plus a fixed rule that governs everything for all time. When researchers study emergent complexity in the Game of Life, they assume the rules never change and that nothing fundamental about the universe changes because of the patterns inside it.

Walker argued that this is not what we experience as living things. Human history shows that ideas and culture change the structure of reality around us. So a paradigm written in theoretical physics 300 years ago no longer fits the reality we actually live in.

She traced a series of models, each tied to the technology of its time. Clocks accurate to the second made it possible to map planetary motion precisely. That led to the discovery of elliptical orbits, Galileo's work on inertia, Newton's gravitation, and a clockwork picture of the universe. Walker's recurring point is that each new physical theory brings its own concept of time. Newton's time is linear, a substance the system passes through rather than an active property of it. Steam engines led to thermodynamics and a picture of the universe as a giant engine, where the second law gives time a direction. Walker noted that directional time sits uneasily with linear time and that this is still debated. In the last century, the popular idea became that the universe is a simulation. She pointed out that two kinds of relativity emerged in that period: Einstein's relativistic time and a relativity in computation, since the same program can run at different times on different computers. She suggested that "time is relative" was an idea circulating across the culture.

In her assessment, all of these models share one paradigm. The universe does not fundamentally change over time, and the rules are fixed.

Fixed Laws Versus Endless Forms

Walker set this against Darwin's theory of evolution. She said Darwin was frustrated that life had no laws as simple as Newton's, yet he still produced elegant explanations. She asked the audience to hold two ideas side by side. One is a predictable, deterministic universe with fixed rules. The other is Darwin's "endless forms." Can a universe as we currently understand it actually produce endless forms? If the real universe can, what would that physics look like? Our planet, she said, seems to produce them.

This is why she approaches "Are we alone?" through a different question: "What are we?" If we do not understand ourselves, or how we shape our own reality, we will not recognize anything like us elsewhere. We also lack a shared language to discuss the phenomenon of life.

She described a moment from her postdoc years. At a chemistry conference, a colleague opened a talk by declaring that "life does not exist." Walker saw this as typical of chemists working on the origin of life, for whom it is easier to assume the phenomenon away than to face it. She also raised the familiar paradox that no atom in your body is alive, yet you are. At origin-of-life meetings, she said, she felt existentially perplexed, because almost nobody discussed the origin of life. They discussed how to make parts of living things prebiotically, such as amino acids or proteins. Looking back, Walker described this as deconstructing 4 billion years of evolution and replacing it with intelligent design in the form of the experimenters' own choices. The question she thinks we should ask is different: how does the universe generate information and complexity when it has none? That, for her, is the origin of life.

Theories as Technologies, and the Science of Measurement

Walker asked the audience to think of theories as technologies. The models she had described shaped how people understood their place in the universe. She noted that some people even use fundamental physics as a basis for their daily philosophy. Ideas from theoretical physics may seem esoteric, she said, but they seep into the base layer of how a culture understands reality. So she believes physicists have a responsibility to cultivate theories that enable the future and offer optimistic views of what we are. Those theories also have to match reality, which she called the hard part of being a physicist. For her, science at its core is not about experiments and hypothesis testing. It is about building explanations of how the world works that last for centuries.

She then turned to metrology, the science of measurement, a field she encountered only recently. She said she never took a course on what a measurement is, even as a physicist, and that the subject is very complex. Her current view is that measurement is how we map abstract ideas onto the physical world, using devices that probe beyond our own minds for structural regularities. If an abstraction cannot be embedded in a measurement, it cannot be tested.

Lee Cronin's Problem: How Would You Measure Life?

Walker said she began working on the origin of life as a PhD student, reluctantly at first, because she had wanted to be a cosmologist. She came to love the problem because nobody had a conceptual framing for it. At the time, she thought theories of it might never be testable.

Then she met Lee Cronin, a chemist approaching the same problem from another direction. Cronin disliked how much design went into origin-of-life chemistry. Researchers searched for molecular structures found on Earth today and assumed they were relevant to the origin of life as a general process in the universe. They did not ask how unconstrained chemical systems generate complexity without anyone designing it. Cronin set out to build robots that explore chemistry "as messy as possible," hoping to see life emerge in his lab. That raised a question: if life did emerge there, how would he measure it? Walker described this question as the foundation of assembly theory.

The theory's conjecture is that life is the only mechanism the universe has for generating complexity. Walker drew out what she sees as the consequences. There are no Boltzmann brains and no spontaneously fluctuating objects. You exist nowhere else in the universe, because 4 billion years were needed to build you on this planet. She acknowledged this runs against current physics, which allows that anything could exist anywhere with low probability, that there might be another you somewhere, or that you might be a brain that fluctuated into existence. In her framework, complexity arises through evolution and selection. The space of possibilities is so vast compared with the universe that existence is special.

How Big Combinatorial Space Is: The Taxol Example

To make this concrete, Walker introduced combinatorial space, the space of all configurations of something. That could be LEGO, language, technologies, or molecules. She borrowed an example from Cronin: Taxol, an anti-cancer drug that is not especially unusual as molecules go. If you made one copy of every three-dimensional structure sharing Taxol's molecular formula, she said, the result would fill 1.5 universes of volume. Cheminformaticians cannot compute how many possible molecules exist, so the size of chemical space is unknown.

This leads to her central question. The universe lacks the time and resources to make every molecule with Taxol's formula, or DNA's, or every possible configuration of the chairs in the room. So why does this Taxol exist and not the alternatives? Walker's conjecture is that observed objects exist because evolution and selection have narrowed the space of possibilities. There is information in the history that produced one object rather than another. This is where she starts building an informational theory of life.

LEGO Castles and the Assembly Index

Walker asked the audience to imagine a pile of LEGO and to picture what they would build from it. She then showed a LEGO castle, one most people recognized. She asked how many had imagined something far simpler, and many had. Even imagining a complex object is hard, she said, because it takes many steps.

That is the idea behind the assembly index. Break an object into its parts, then rebuild it by joining parts, including pieces you have already built. The shortest such sequence is the object's shortest causal history, and its number of steps is the assembly index. Walker described it as a measure of how hard it is for the universe to produce the object. Castles, she said, do not happen spontaneously. The one on the slide required human cultural evolution, the history of castle building, someone writing a hugely popular book about a boy and magic, and billions of LEGO bricks on the planet.

For molecules, chemical bonds replace LEGO bricks. Walker gave the example of ATP, a critical molecule in biology, which has an assembly index of 21 by this procedure. The index can be computed from the molecule's graph. But Walker credited Cronin with the key insight. A mass spectrometer breaks molecules apart and measures the mass-to-charge ratios of the molecule and its fragments. If that process could reveal how complex a structure is, the index could be measured instead of only calculated. Walker said assembly theory began with thought experiments about mass spectrometry. According to her, Cronin's lab can now measure the same property with three techniques: mass spectrometry, NMR, and infrared spectroscopy.

A Threshold for Life and the "Life Meter"

Why does it matter that this can be measured? Walker returned to the size of chemical space. There are many ways to add one bond, so each assembly step moves into an exponentially larger space. What the assembly index captures is selection compressed into the objects that exist, against a background that keeps expanding. Because of how that space is structured, the conjecture predicts a threshold. Beyond it, we should never observe an object unless it was made by life, meaning by a selective, information-processing system.

Walker described a 2021 paper from Cronin's lab that built a "life meter" on this principle. The team measured abiotic samples, biological samples, and dead biological material. According to Walker, the only molecules found above an assembly index of 15 came from life. She said NASA was interested and sent blinded samples designed to trick the lab, including material from the Murchison meteorite, which she described as one of the messiest abiotic samples. The method still separated biological from non-biological samples. Walker said the results matched the theory's prediction of an abrupt complexity threshold. Abiotic material such as meteorites is what chemists call "tar," a random mixture so combinatorially complex that individual molecules cannot even be distinguished. Life, by contrast, selects specific complex structures and produces them in high abundance.

She pointed to an application: recognizing alien life by its constructed complexity, even when its molecules are unknown, which she called "life as no one knows it." But she said her main interest lies elsewhere, in explaining what we are and finding the fundamental physics of life.

Assembly Space as a Physical Space

Walker said the ideas that follow may seem to blend computational and material language in odd ways, and that this is intentional. She sees assembly theory as unifying information, usually treated as abstract, with physical properties. She noted that past unifications in physics changed how people thought, and she hopes this one will too.

She treats assembly space as a physical space. People created coordinate space by inventing rulers and measuring physical geometry. In the same way, assembly theory makes measurable a space that has seemed abstract: how causally deep objects are. Showing the assembly space of adenosine, a molecule important in genetic systems, she described it as both a material property, because it can be measured, and an informational one, because it captures how much information and selection went into the object's history. She described it as physical, measurable, and predictive.

She then laid out nested layers. Starting from what is actually observed ("assembly observed"), you can build an outer layer called the "assembly universe": every imaginable structure, including ones that break the rules. In LEGO terms, this means gluing bricks together any way you like. Inside that is "assembly possible," the structures allowed by the actual rules. For LEGO, that means real brick connections. For chemistry, it means real bonds and thermodynamic stability. Standard physics can handle this layer. Assembly theory adds another layer inside it, "assembly contingent": the structures the universe can actually build, because they are built along historically contingent paths.

Because evolution must build on what came before, and the space is too large to explore fully, Walker argued that things like us are deeply contingent. In her view, rewinding history even 100 years would produce a radically different present, and the vastness of the space makes it unpredictable. She added that our ability to reach other possible histories by examining our own causal structure may be one of the ways we create novelty. We can learn the rules of our own history and use them to build the future.

The Assembly Equation and the Origin of Life as a Transition

Walker described the "assembly equation," which measures how deep a system sits in assembly space. She said it depends on two things. It grows exponentially with the number of steps, since the space expands exponentially. And it counts how many copies of an object exist. A one-off fluctuation does not imply a lineage that can rebuild the object. What matters is that a planet can produce many structurally similar things. Humans are not exact copies of one another, but evolution reliably produces human-like structures.

With this, she defined the origin of life as the point where objects become too complex to arise without a particular trajectory building on itself. Beyond that point, history and memory must accumulate, selection must operate, and an information-processing system must feed back on itself recursively. Without that, you get only a combinatorial mess that tries every option, and for complex objects the universe cannot do that. It "has to make choices," which Walker acknowledged is anthropocentric language. "We are our history," she said. "That is the physical thing that is us."

Her definition of life is "lineages of propagating information": causal histories accumulated over many generations and embodied in physical objects. Known physics describes the region below the transition. Walker said the transition point itself is not yet known, but she thinks assembly theory is bringing us closer. On her account, life first arose in chemistry, the first combinatorial space a planet produces. But the origin of life is also an ongoing process that happens whenever a new combinatorial space appears, including in language and technology. It is a general process of generating novelty and complexity from combinatorial spaces, and that process is the physics she wants to find.

A Paper That Went Viral, and a New Language

The theoretical paper in Nature was, Walker said, her first scientific paper to go viral. She showed a favorite meme: a confused person next to the paper's abstract. She thinks part of the confusion came from language. She recalled intense arguments with Cronin and said the collaborators went through about 150 drafts. The language was internally consistent, she said, but used words in unfamiliar ways, because it was trying to bring together many conceptual threads into a new vocabulary. She hopes that makes it a new "existential technology."

From there she presented several concepts. First, time is material. Assembly theory's concept of time is that time is a property of objects; in that sense, we are 4 billion years old. To the objection that one cannot simply invent new materials, she cited Roger Penrose, who she said dislikes the word "material" because it implies we know what material is, and Madonna, who "lives in a material world." Walker said she is confident social reality is as real as elementary particles. Looking at the history of physics, she argued, what we call matter is whatever we have learned to measure and embed in theory. Mass and acceleration became the terms for motion because they could be measured reliably and turned out to be the right measurements, and finding them took a long time. So inventing new material realities fits that history.

Second, the fundamental unit of life is the lineage, not the cell. Her friend Michael Lachmann answers the question of his age by saying he is 3.8 billion years old, roughly when life is thought to have begun. Walker argued that reducing us to atoms strips out all that time and causation, which is where we actually exist. She described evolved objects as "bigger in time than space," packing 4 billion years of constructed complexity into something the size of a brain. She suggested reality seems increasingly strange because more of the objects around us are deep in time, while our senses evolved to handle space, not time. We did not grasp the curvature of spacetime for most of history, she said, and we do not yet grasp how deep the causal structures around us are. Information appears to jump between materials because it is structure embedded deep in time.

Third, on this view, the largest known causal structure in the universe is the technosphere. Measured by space, our planet is small; measured by causal time, it is enormous. Walker said she believes the human brain currently has the highest density of causal volume per unit mass on the planet, and that this explains our capacity for abstraction. Technology has not reached that density yet, because its causal structure is spread more thinly per unit mass.

Fourth, the universe does not predict the future; it constructs it. What it predicts is the past. Because the volume of things that could be created far exceeds what exists now, the present does not contain enough information to determine the future. Walker said we live in an indeterministic universe and that she considers this fully consistent with quantum mechanics, though she called that a separate conversation.

Fifth, history and knowledge determine what is possible. Launching satellites and making elements with high atomic numbers are both consistent with the laws of physics. But they happen here because of knowledge accumulated over billions of years and because intelligent beings evolved. Walker noted we see neither on any other planet.

First Contact in the Lab

Walker ended with the idea she said she likes most: "first contact in the lab." She described AI and aliens as two concepts we currently do not understand. Our technologies seem to be coming alive, but we cannot see the historical contingency that produced them. We can trace information through genomes but not from genomic biology into technology, even though, she said, information does pass between those substrates, since technology is part of our lineage. She called this "quantifying the ghost in the machine." To understand how we evolve alongside our technologies, she argued, we need to see that underlying structure.

So she expects that, if the effort succeeds, we will discover alien life first on Earth, not on another planet, through experiments that search chemical space for new forms of life. Showing a single network representing the chemistry of Earth's biosphere, she said we occupy a tiny corner of chemical space and that other planets may generate other kinds of living chemistry. The goal is to create entirely new lineages in the lab without human design, to learn "how the universe designs itself" and to isolate the physics of the origin-of-life transition. She said she does not think there is any description of the universe from the outside, only a universe constructing itself whose rules we want to learn. First contact, for her, is both an event and an existential technology.

She closed with an image of the layers society is built from. She joked that she loves fashion and theoretical physics, the top and bottom layers. Her serious point was that if we neglect the base layer, our fundamental understanding of reality, the whole structure becomes incoherent. That is why she thinks new fundamental physics is urgently needed to understand our moment, what life is, and where we are going.

Q&A: Causal Depth, Agency, and the Technosphere

Bratton began by asking whether the causation accumulated in the technosphere over billions of years corresponds to the causal agency it has now, its ability to do things that were not possible before.

Walker said the two are closely related: the things with the most causal power are those deep in time. But she said the causes you can act from are mostly behind you, while what lies ahead is a noisy horizon. She does not think the technosphere will have causal power of its own until a larger structure builds on top of it, which she described as a kind of post-selection. When Bratton noted that she had spoken of co-evolution, she agreed that the whole system, including us, is being co-constructed, and said agency is distributed in time as well as among agents.

She used free will as an example. You cannot be in Arizona right now if you are in San Francisco, but you can be there tomorrow if you planned ahead. Free will, in her view, is distributed over time and depends on the act in question, and the same holds for causal structures. These structures are recursively deep and layered, with many interacting at once. She joked that she should have been an artist, because it would be easier to communicate the pictures in her head.

Q&A: The Perceptual Horizon and AI as a Microscope

Bratton asked about her idea of a "perceptual horizon." Is the discovery of life, which she compares to the discovery of gravity, possible only once that horizon has grown wide enough?

Walker explained with atoms. The word comes from ancient Greek, and chemical elements were named atoms because they were thought to be the bottom level of matter. Later technology revealed structure inside atoms. She said string theory, currently a leading candidate for a fundamental theory, is not accepted mainly because we cannot yet measure at that depth, which she called a technological hurdle. Gravitational waves had passed through the planet for billions of years, but detecting them required Einstein's general relativity and then LIGO. The line of what counts as "fundamental," she argued, moves with our technology.

From this she concluded that fundamental things are not at the horizon itself but in the constructed complexity within it. We expand what we can know by building new instruments that probe the edges of our "causal bubble," and we must be a large enough causal structure to see things smaller than ourselves. She suggested that the current moment, when technology is animating more and more things, will help us understand what life is. She added that we cannot yet see patterns in our own history and culture because human history has not lasted long enough to show regularities.

Asked what technologies might make that possible, Walker named three: theories as existential technologies, including assembly theory as a joint effort; instruments in the lab; and, to some degree, AI as a measurement tool. Bratton noted that AI is often discussed as a scientific collaborator, while she seemed to treat it more like a microscope. Walker agreed. Microscopes show tiny structures and telescopes show distant ones. AI algorithms show large patterns, but only the surface layer at the edges of very large causal structures. In her view, assembly theory describes the underlying architecture that produces the data layer we now live in, and AI is the technology for seeing that layer.

Q&A: Minds, Abstraction, and Rejecting Platonism

On the place of mind in assembly theory, Walker said minds are very deep in assembly space. Her example was the perfect circle. It cannot exist as a physical object, since that would need infinite precision, but it exists as an idea. She thinks much of the combinatorial space exists in virtual causal structures that could not stand as physical objects alone. Because minds are so deep in time and can reach those abstract layers, they can manipulate more of their environment and bring more creativity into the world. For Walker, our capacity for abstraction is evidence of how deep in time we are.

When Bratton asked whether this was Platonism, Walker said she has an "allergic reaction" to it, intellectually. She described herself as a materialist, adding that she is unsure whether it is the Madonna version or the Penrose version, since both coexist in her mind. She sees no reason to believe anything exists beyond what exists here. If ideas and abstractions are treated as physical features of this reality, not residents of some imagined realm, she argued, we learn much more about what is happening. She wants to know what abstractions are as physical architectures. Mathematics is supposed to be a universal language, but she sees it as our minds' ability to shape the future through the patterns in our own architecture. She views mathematics, and science generally, as constructive rather than predictive: part of how the planet generates possibilities and moves forward. She finds this more useful than assuming an inaccessible reality that governs us, because it gives us more agency and more understanding of ourselves. She took the same stance on information. It shapes everyone's life, she said, so it makes no sense to treat it as non-physical.

Q&A: Falsifiability and Measuring Other Substrates

Asked what falsifiable predictions assembly theory makes, Walker gave two. First, the theory would be contradicted if objects of arbitrarily high complexity appeared without an evolutionary process, for example a cell phone spontaneously appearing on Mars, and that has not been observed. Second, she and Cronin have discussed testing whether every object has a minimum construction time. She called Cronin a brilliant experimentalist but said designing an experiment to show that something cannot fluctuate into existence and requires a history is a hard problem.

She added that tests are not everything. Gravity has many tests, but it is also a language for a regularity our ancestors observed long ago, like why we stay in our chairs. She sees assembly theory as a language for a similarly deep regularity and admitted she does not know how to test an explanation that seems obvious. The mathematical theory's features can be tested, but she believes the deepest work of science is building better explanations, and that science is more varied than it is usually portrayed. When Bratton brought up Paul Feyerabend's epistemological anarchism, she said she likes the idea.

An audience question followed: mass spectrometry may work for molecules, but how would one measure a technology or a culture? Walker said the theory is general but extending it to new substrates is hard. So far it has been done rigorously for molecules and for crystalline materials such as minerals and silicon chips, where it can precisely tell natural minerals from engineered silicon. The difficulty is that the assembly index has to be embedded in a measurement scheme. You must reconstruct how the universe actually produces the structure, including which causal constraints and physical laws are involved, not just your model of the causation. That is a substrate-specific task. Walker said this is where assembly theory differs fundamentally from computation. Computational models can be built for anything, but each selective mechanism has one assembly space, each with its own laws, constraints, and contingency, and assembly spaces can be nested inside one another. She said the goal is to demonstrate the theory in enough materials to show that life is a general phenomenon.

On culture and language, she said some languages are presumably more complex than others. The hard part is choosing the substrate for building a language's assembly space: speech, writing, or what is stored in computers. Viewed from outside, language is patterns some entities on this planet utter to others, and understanding it as a physical causal structure is highly non-trivial. She said she thinks it is possible but did not want to give easy answers.

Q&A: Substrates for Minds and When AI Becomes Life

The last questions asked whether other substrates can hold minds and when AI becomes life. Walker said the interesting substrates are those with enough combinatorial richness to be open-ended, perhaps uncomputable, like chemical space, which the whole planet lacks the resources to generate in a model. Those are the substrates capable of open-ended complexity.

She added atmospheres to molecules and minerals as a third substrate she is fairly confident about, because of the interest in detecting life on exoplanets. Atmospheres are not combinatorially rich; she said about 16,000 volatile molecules could plausibly appear in one, a small space. As a result, the selection constraints in an exoplanet's atmosphere would be weak. Living and non-living worlds would sit on a continuum, though she thinks a transition could still be detected. Substrates with deep combinatorial structure can enter an open-ended cascade, and those are what she would really call living. The very deep structures within such spaces can have minds.

On AI, Walker said it is shallow for now. The integrated structure of technology on the planet is getting deeper, but she considers any individual model a shallow system. She questioned whether prediction algorithms only seem causally deep because we, who interact with them, are deep, while their physical embodiment remains shallow. She said the real question is not about the output on a screen but what it is like to be a silicon chip running a large language model, and that none of us knows.

Bratton suggested that since humans built these models, they might contain much of our evolutionary time. Walker agreed that they contain a great deal of the evolution of language, but said much of that is only the linguistic component. Word meanings shift constantly; she noted that asking the room "What is life?" would produce as many answers as people. A predictive correlation between one word and others does not capture the conceptual foundation beneath it. In her view, meaning is built mostly from the causal richness of our physical architecture and history, not from predictive associations among words. She tied this to disinformation. People with different causal histories use the same words to mean different things and can cloud one another's perception of reality. At the surface layer, without seeing the structure underneath or someone's individual experience, it is easy to assume bad intent where there is none.

The session ended on the question Walker had left open: what is it like to be a large language model embodied in physical hardware? Bratton thanked her for offering assembly theory as a scaffold for what comes next.