Stefan Sagmeister on Why the World Looks Worse Than It Is, and How Design Can Show the Long View

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Overview

At a Long Now Talk in San Francisco on February 17, 2026, designer Stefan Sagmeister made a case for what host Lisa Kay Solomon called "informed optimism." His argument is that the world can be terrible and better at the same time, and that which one we see depends on the time frame. Short news cycles favor catastrophe. Most real improvements happen slowly over decades. For several years Sagmeister has turned long-term data on human progress into paintings, sculptures, clothing, glassware and public installations, with the aim of offering people "a tiny bite of a carrot" in a media environment that mostly supplies the stick. After the talk, Solomon interviewed him about critics and enthusiasts, exhibition design, his sabbaticals, constraints, and the future of design.

28 min read

An Audience Poll and the "Optimism Gap"

Sagmeister opened with a show of hands. He asked who thought humanity would end soon, who thought things would be bad, who thought they would be boring, who was carefully optimistic, and who thought things would be great. A handful chose the bleak options. Most chose careful optimism or "great," and he called it "the most positive audience I've ever seen." He then asked the same question about their personal futures, and the answers shifted further toward "things will be great."

He said this pattern is common enough that psychologists study it under the name of the optimism gap. People in poor and rich countries alike believe they are doing better than the world. The effect covers opinions too: we tend to think we care more about the environment than other people do. He said the gap grows as the circle widens. Your family seems fine, your friends a little less so, the city less again, the country terrible, and the world worst of all.

A Dinner in Rome and the State of Democracy

Sagmeister said the project began during his time as designer in residence at the American Academy in Rome. The food program there was run by Alice Waters, and he said the food was so good that all 75 or so resident artists, architects, writers, filmmakers and puppeteers stayed for lunch and dinner. Seating rotated every night. One evening he sat beside a lawyer who worked at a European court, the spouse of one of the resident artists. The lawyer told him that events in Poland and Brazil meant the end of modern democracy.

Sagmeister did not argue at the table. Back in his studio he searched for the history of modern democracy. By his account, 200 years ago there was one democratic country, the United States. About 100 years ago, after World War I, there were 16. Today the United Nations counts 86 countries as proper democracies, and for the first time more than half of humanity lives under a democratic system. He described the lawyer as someone who "reads five newspapers in three languages every single day" and still had "no clue about the world that he lives in." That conversation was seven years ago. Sagmeister said the world was then about five years past its most democratic point in history. He found the gap between perception and data a promising subject for a communication designer, especially since many of his friends think the way his dinner companion did.

Why We Catastrophize

Sagmeister gave two explanations. The first is the shift in media from yearly almanacs to monthly and weekly magazines, then daily papers, always-on television, and constant social media. The shorter the cycle, the more negative the news, because scandals and catastrophes fit a short cycle well. Good developments take a long time, so they "almost fall out" of it.

The second is biology. He described the amygdala as a shortcut that lets danger register before the eyes have even finished sending information to the brain. Positive information gets no such shortcut. The mechanism made sense for Stone Age ancestors, but he said his own life is very safe, and he believes it would be better informed if he also looked at things over the long term. Across 10, 100 or 200 years, he said, "basically everything has gotten better."

To head off the objection that "better" is subjective, he proposed a shared baseline: most people would rather be alive than dead, fed than hungry, knowledgeable than ignorant, living in a democracy than a dictatorship, healthy than sick, and at peace than at war. These things can be measured, he said, and they have been, by trustworthy sources over roughly 200 years. All of them have improved.

Family History as Data: Old Paintings with Holes Cut in Them

He acknowledged that averaged data can feel cold, so he turned to his own family. His great-great-grandparents, Jacob and Johanna Sagmeister, lost six children. The children did not die at birth but at ages one, two, four, and one at eight. He stressed that this was not unusual bad luck. Around 200 years ago in Central Europe, only about 60 percent of children survived to adulthood. His great-grandparents lost five children, even though they belonged to the elite of western Austria. What made them elite, he said, was literacy: only about 15 percent of Austrians in their generation could read and write.

That generation ran a small antique shop in his hometown of Bregenz, and the unsold stock ended up in the attic of the house where he grew up. Sagmeister took some of those old paintings, cut large holes in them, and inserted new canvases that look like minimal art but are data visualizations. One piece concerns his grandmother, the first woman in his family allowed to vote. She had to wait until she was 48, because Austria introduced women's suffrage only in 1919. In the painting, a tiny yellow dot marks how many women worldwide could vote then, and a large purple circle shows how many can now. He said the only state that still bars women from voting is the Vatican, "not a great record for a place founded by a woman and her baby."

He was careful not to claim that everything is fine. In 1990, he said, half of Americans thought women should go back to the kitchen. That share has fallen to about 20 percent, which he still called a shocking number.

Clothing, Glassware and a Deliberately Lazy Fashion Brand

Sagmeister wanted the work outside galleries as well, so he made a small clothing line. Each item visualizes one data set, and the label inside explains it. One coat shows the fall in violent death: according to him, 500 years ago the chance of being killed by another person was 25 times higher than today. The line has 12 items and no seasons or future collections. He called it "probably the single most lazy fashion brand on earth." The logo is a koala stoned on eucalyptus, which he bought for $200 from a discount logo site instead of designing it. On the online store, the koala looks less happy if you remove something from your cart.

For the Viennese company Lobmeyr he made a set of hand-painted glasses showing small environmental successes. One tracks the rise in signatories to the Kyoto treaty, represented by leaves scaled to the actual data.

Environmental Worries, Then and Now

Sagmeister listed what worried him when he was young: exploding populations, inevitable famines, advancing deserts, multiplying garbage dumps, falling sperm counts, and oil running out. When he moved to New York City, the Hudson was so dark and sluggish that nobody would imagine anything lived in it, let alone eat fish from it. He said New York State public health guidance now advises only pregnant people and infants under six months against eating Hudson fish, and it looks to him as if healthy fish will come from the river very soon.

He then addressed climate change directly, calling it "the elephant in the room." He noted that humans began emitting CO2 when they discovered fire and accelerated sharply during the industrial revolution. He pointed again to his grandmother. She mended socks, never owned a car and never flew, yet by his account her carbon footprint was about 10 tons a year. That is double the average Austrian's today of about five tons (he admitted his own is higher). He attributed this to how inefficiently her generation burned coal and wood. He also said humanity has solved big environmental problems before. Acid rain and dying forests dominated headlines in the 1990s, and he said the problem is now basically gone in the United States and Europe, with other countries making progress too.

Bringing the Exhibition to Ukraine

On war, Sagmeister described a turn he had not expected. A German podcast host asked whether he would bring his message to Ukraine. He said absolutely not, because people with bombs falling on them have no interest in hearing that war deaths are declining overall. A week later a woman from Ukraine contacted him to say they would like to hear it. He agreed on the condition that a full hour of discussion follow his talk.

In that discussion, one woman suggested translating his book into Ukrainian. He thought it would never happen, but it did. Someone else proposed bringing the exhibition to Ukraine. He doubted that too, since there were no flights, but the organizers found a sponsor and made it happen. A few months later he flew to Warsaw, was driven to the border, walked across, and was picked up by another car. Lviv turned out to be a lively city of cobblestone streets and about a million people, with UNESCO World Heritage status. The show was housed in converted shipping containers in a park, which he described as surprisingly elegant, with good lighting and sound.

He and the organizers discussed whether to include the war-related paintings, which show that fewer people die in wars now than in any earlier period. He then spoke at a venue before 3,000 people in the room and 5,000 online, all of them, he assumed, in Ukraine given how hard it was to enter the country. He thought part of the excitement came from relief at an event not directly about the war, since people there were so tired of it. He said he lost count of how many times people thanked him for coming to Ukraine and bringing something so positive.

Despair Paralyzes: The Carrot and the Stick

Sagmeister said negative news matters because it jolts people into action. When everything is negative, though, people stop trying, and "the apocalypse becomes just background noise." He cited a global survey from the previous year of 10,000 people aged 15 to 25, in which, as he reported it, 53 percent thought humanity would not survive within their lifetimes. For him, that is the core problem, because "despair doesn't motivate, it paralyzes."

His studio has made a wall installation in several places, a "history of the end of the world" featuring very smart historical figures, Isaac Newton among them, who predicted the apocalypse and were wrong. He suggested a kind of narcissism is involved: since we could not be the first people on earth, it feels appealing to be the last.

He argued the stakes are political. Pointing to an image on screen, he said "this kind of crap" is possible only when most people in a country believe everything is terrible and used to be much better. He blamed quality media for this "just as much" as partisan outlets, naming the New York Times alongside Fox News, and the audience applauded. He described asking Republicans when America was great. It could not have been ten years ago, because Obama was president, and Ronald Reagan had already run on "Make America Great Again." In his view, America was never great in that sense, just as the world never was. Nostalgia is a "mind trick," because we forget bad things faster than good ones.

He insisted this is not a call to relax. Things improved because people fought hard for women's rights, democracy, food, peace and education. As a model of social change, he cited anti-smoking campaigns. By his account, almost every country halved its smoking rate, and the UK cut it to a quarter. He argued those campaigns worked by combining fear (warning labels and disease photos) with promises of better health and money saved. The media currently supplies plenty of stick, he said, and his work tries to offer a little carrot.

How the Pieces Are Made

Sagmeister said the process feels closer to songwriting than to graphic design. His studio used to design album covers, and watching bands in the studio, he saw that a song could start from a rhythm, a lyric or a mood. His pieces work the same way. One might start from a data set, another from a subject, another from an old painting. He usually tests dozens of combinations, and sometimes shape leads, sometimes surface, sometimes a mix of meaning and form. "The images look simple because the process is complex," he said.

He described the steps. The team separates the historic canvas from its frame, tests the paint's flexibility, digitizes the forms, cuts them with a CNC machine, and folds the canvas inward. The inserts go through repeated rounds of painting and sanding before resin is poured and they are set into the old canvases. A restoration expert is part of the team. He said the studio's atmosphere has changed completely from that of a commercial graphic design office. The team also casts bronze. In one piece he bought a 17th-century Jesus figure that had no arms or legs, added bronze limbs, and painted them in automotive paint, again based on data.

On whether this is art or design, he said viewers shouldn't care: "If it moves you, it works. If it doesn't, it doesn't." You can have an experience in front of a Picasso or a Milton Glaser. As a maker, though, he leans toward calling it design. He takes a very large subject, human development, and tries to communicate it, which he considers pretty much the definition of communication design. The studio also makes lenticular prints that change as viewers walk past, focusing on more recent data.

Public Commissions: A Bike Path, Wind Fish and Hospital Tunnels

The studio still takes clients who let it work on its subject in their spaces. In Arkansas it set mosaics directly into the concrete of a bike path: more than a hundred local insect species that appear to carry gemstones up an office building cyclists can ride straight into. On the roof terrace the insects deposit the gems into one of his favorite sentences. In the same town the studio installed two giant fish made of hundreds of thousands of small stainless-steel pellets that move in the wind. When the fish were finished, he overheard two boys of about twelve, and one told the other, "I think it's made out of water."

Sagmeister said he drinks 12 to 14 espressos a day, so the espresso cup seemed a good medium for his message. One cup shows how inequality in the UK has changed over the past 100 years. The data curve on the saucer reflects into the cup's curved mirrored surface. It shows inequality was once much worse, reached its lowest point about 40 years ago, and has since risen again.

In Toronto, he said, five major hospitals are connected by underground tunnels. Patients who need an operating theater their own hospital lacks are wheeled through them. He called the tunnels "the bleakest hallway ever," a place "where optimism goes to die." The budget allowed only paint, so he showed before-and-after images of tunnels covered in nature imagery. He said studies suggest such imagery calms patients, while noting wryly that of the roughly hundred studies he read on healing and design, most ended by concluding that more studies are needed. There was also no money to hide pipes and air-conditioning ducts, so the design incorporates them. The tunnels leading to the hospital called SickKids were made more playful and child-friendly.

Work Meant to Be Lived With

Sagmeister contrasted this project with his earlier large exhibitions, such as The Happy Show and a show on beauty, which "sold nothing" because they were about ideas rather than commerce. These paintings are meant to be bought, hung in a living room, and used as a reminder that whatever is trending on X "really isn't the full story." Collectors tell him the old-looking pieces often start good dinner conversations. For people who can't afford a painting, the studio made perforated posters that visitors can take home for free, which he said seems to work well. A fuller version of the idea appears in a book published by Phaidon, promoted with videos in which a manatee interviews him.

The work has been shown at 3,500 meters in the Alps, in Ginza in central Tokyo, in a Tadao Ando building in Mexico, and in a Zaha Hadid building in Seoul. In Korea the studio used inflatable dancing figures, the kind seen at gas stations, as a bar chart. The outdoor installation celebrated Korean life expectancy rising, by his figures, from 27 to 83 years in just over a century. The studio also ran a small experiment there. Visitors drew faces on ping-pong balls at the start and end of the show, and by his account there were a few more smiling faces at the end.

In Shanghai the show included embroideries by master craftspeople from Suzhou, a nearby city known for crafts. They are done entirely by hand, are almost photorealistic, and render typography legibly in thread. They visualize the decline of illiteracy and famine over two centuries.

Two True Headlines

Sagmeister said that 200 years ago, 90 percent of people lived in extreme poverty under a small ruling elite. He called one of his most startling data points a finding by a Nobel Prize–winning economist: the typical energy value of a meal in France in 1700 equaled that of a meal in the Republic of Congo today, which he described as among the most malnourished countries on earth. He said the United Nations predicts the end of extreme poverty within our lifetimes. The headline "135,000 people escaped extreme poverty today," he said, could truthfully have run every day for the past 25 years.

His point is that the grim view and the hopeful view are both true, and the difference lies in the time frame. "X or Twitter gives you one point of view, history will give you a completely different one." He urged the audience, whether they have four followers or four million, to post about the long term, while admitting it isn't easy. He cited a study in Nature from the previous year showing that positive headlines get fewer clicks, and joked that his book would have sold far more under a gloomier title.

He repeated the opening poll. This time about half the room chose "carefully optimistic" and about a third chose "great." He closed on a personal note. When he is anxious, he is of little use to friends, family or the world. When he is doing well, he is much better for the people around him. His advice was to scroll less and read more nonfiction with the time saved: "You'll feel less anxious and you'll know more."

Critics, Enthusiasts, and Why Good News Is Boring

In the conversation that followed, Solomon raised a point from his book: we tend to see critics as smarter than enthusiasts. Sagmeister cited a survey from one of Steven Pinker's books showing that a critic who hates a book is judged more intelligent than one who loves it, who seems naive or Pollyanna-ish. He also said John Stuart Mill observed centuries ago that we treat those who warn of danger as wise sages and ignore the positive voices. We are wired this way, he said, and he is no exception.

He gave an example against himself. He has stayed in touch with David Byrne, whose band Talking Heads his studio designed covers for. Byrne funds a small media outlet, Reasons to Be Cheerful, which pays journalists out of his own money to pursue positive stories. Sagmeister follows it because he likes Byrne, but admitted he almost never reads it: "It's just so boring."

He offered what he called a suspicion without proof. Designers who call themselves problem solvers, he said, are mostly too lazy to take on the harder problem of beauty. Solving a problem beautifully is much harder than just solving it, and he estimated that 95 or 98 percent of the problems designers solve are easy. He thinks journalism has an equivalent. Everyone wants to be interesting and get clicks, and a negative story is the easy default. Many in the media also see their job as reporting what went wrong today, so everything that worked out falls away.

Designing Exhibitions That Involve the Viewer

Solomon asked how he gets beyond functional charts to work that engages people. Sagmeister said an exhibition designer has one major advantage: the visitors are in your space, so you can do things with them. His earlier large shows did this extensively. After COVID, he said, big shows became hard. The museums he can get into, which he called "a B+ museum" level since institutions like the Met or MoMA have enough curators not to want outside exhibitions (or, he allowed, his shows might not be good enough), ran short of money. So he made very small exhibitions for a while and is now scaling up again, with a large exhibition planned for Paris.

His goal is to involve visitors as much as possible, because if they have to do something, discover something, or work something out, they will remember it better. He does not want interactive screens, or screens at all, since anything on a screen could be delivered on a website at home. He wants an exhibition to be a place where people, often in groups of two or three, see something themselves and talk about it together in front of the work. He said almost no other medium offers that: television a little, online and phones not at all. He designs for a general audience and called designing for designers "the most boring," something that quickly turns insular.

Sabbaticals and Reflection

Sagmeister is known for closing his studio every seven years for a sabbatical. He said success tends to make you busy, and busyness makes it hard to step back and reconsider. He was afraid before the first one. He expected to be forgotten, to look unprofessional, and to lose all his clients. None of it happened. Lou Reed even moved his album release date so the studio could still design the cover. The second, third and fourth sabbaticals were easy because he knew they would work.

His reasoning is that a year of thinking produces different results from a weekend, because you think about things on a different time scale. During sabbaticals the studio started projects it would never have started in normal operation, such as making a film with no prior experience while clients were calling with deadlines. Having done four, he said, most of the projects dearest to him began during a sabbatical. Without them, roughly 80 percent of the work he now considers meaningful would not exist. Solomon added that his diary-keeping has moved ideas between reflection and commercial work.

Constraints and the Paralysis of Total Freedom

Asked about constraints, Sagmeister said designers are used to working within a brief that sets a timeline, a budget, maybe a color scheme. Most are comfortable inside those limits and sometimes push against them, because they define a world to work in. One of his first clients with almost no constraints was a French billboard company that offered a series of five billboards and told him to do something. Being able to do anything turned out to be very hard, and he was lost for a long time.

He eventually found a list in his diary titled "things I've learned in my life so far," with 15 or 20 entries, and decided to publish one because he at least knew it was true. He found it self-centered, but the series drew a strong response and was republished dozens of times around the world. More followed, and he began persuading clients to run his "things I've learned" sentences, without their logos, on media they had paid for. "I'm pretty good salesperson, as you can tell," he joked. Solomon mentioned the book of the same name and the billboard maxim "Trying to look good limits my life," as well as a piece made of 10,000 live bananas that changed over time.

Audience Questions: Beauty, Leverage, and Labels

Grace Hawthorne of the Stanford d.school asked whether the flood of accessible content has dulled or sharpened people's sense of beauty and compassion. On beauty, Sagmeister said he thinks it has gone up, and that he sees more beauty now than 20 years ago. His example was New York's three ugliest institutional spaces: LaGuardia Airport, Penn Station and the Port Authority Bus Terminal. He quoted a line he attributed to the architect Rudolph about Penn Station: "we used to arrive as kings, now we come as rats." He cited a New England systems institute that maps the sentiment of tweets by location, in which Penn Station always shows red (more negative) and Grand Central green. LaGuardia has been renovated, "not fantastic, but a thousand times better," Penn Station is mid-renovation, and the Port Authority terminal is being replaced. In his view, the idea that everything is about functionality was a mistaken version of functionalism that prevailed roughly from the 1950s to 2000. He thinks the world hit peak ugliness around 2000 and is now on a better path. On compassion, he said he couldn't say.

An audience member named Caitlyn asked for the single highest-leverage way to turn the message into action. Sagmeister said that in publishing it would be brilliant if writing something positive and interesting became a recognized goal, seen as a harder and more rewarding challenge than negativity. He named the German weekly Die Zeit as an example: a successful quality paper that is not all positive but has, he believes, a higher share of substantive positive news than any publication he knows, "not cats being rescued off trees." He assumed they work very hard at it. He asked media people in the room to email him if they figure out how to establish that challenge. He returned to the chair analogy: he could design a hundred ergonomically acceptable chairs before dinner, but a chair that makes sense in 2026 and is beautiful means "fighting 5,000 years of chair history."

Another audience member noted that visualizing data without labels asks more of the viewer. Sagmeister said the team tried everything: paintings alone, take-away lists, QR codes, traditional labels. What works best, he found, is a handwritten title and one sentence explaining the piece, with the painting's origin and data sources in small type below. That format gets people to read the most. He said he hates reading in museums like everyone else, so the team works to keep the text precise, with the sources small for those who want them.

The Best Case for Design's Future

The last question, from Kevin Kelly, asked what the best-case future for design would be if everything went right. Sagmeister said he had joined an AI board at Adobe the previous week, "with a lot of caution." The future he would like draws on his mentor, Tibor Kalman, best known for Colors magazine. According to Sagmeister, Kalman could not design or lay out a page and pretended not to know what Helvetica was, which became something of a running bit. But he was charismatic, had a strong point of view, good ideas and a vision, and knew how to hire people who could execute, Sagmeister included. Sagmeister considered Kalman's the best design company in New York at the time. He can see a future in which a designer is someone with a strong point of view who makes things happen through both AI and traditional means, and he said that would be a joyful way to be a designer.

Solomon closed by noting his conviction that things with a human touch are better designed. She gave him macarons from a Bay Area bakery, a nod to one of his maxims about enjoying the finer material things in small quantities. There were six.