Neal Stephenson on Polostan, Rabbit Holes, and Writing History Like Science Fiction

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Overview

At a Long Now Foundation event marking the launch of Polostan, the first volume of his Bomb Light series, Neal Stephenson talked with journalist and author Charles C. Mann about how the book took shape over more than a decade. Polostan is a historical novel set mostly in the 1930s, in the years before the Manhattan Project. Their conversation, and the audience questions that followed, covered how Stephenson handles research that threatens to take over a book, why he doesn't see historical fiction as a departure from science fiction, how he came to write novels outside the usual path for aspiring writers, and what he thinks about carbon, AI tutors, dystopian fiction, and adaptations of his work.

29 min read

An Introduction About Time Travel

Stewart Brand opened the evening by recalling an earlier Long Now speaker, James Gleick, who wrote a book about time travel. Brand summarized Gleick's point this way: time travel never actually happens, but thinking, talking, and telling stories about it is one of the ways people think about time and history. Brand called science fiction writers "professional time travelers." Some go only to the future and some only to the past. He said Stephenson, with what Brand called an engineering mentality, likes to go in both directions, and with Polostan he goes into the past.

Brand introduced Mann as the author of 1491, 1493, and The Wizard and the Prophet, and as a student of how the world changes when, for example, Europeans suddenly appeared on the east coast of the Americas, in contrast to the gradual arrival of Asians on the west coast over earlier millennia. He noted that the two men travel together a lot, often to exotic places, so their pairing on stage was not accidental.

A Novel Six Years "Late"

Mann began with a story. On his walk to the venue, he had Googled his own name and Stephenson's to confirm where they were speaking. Google's AI overview said the two had "been involved in multiple events together," which Mann joked made them sound like a comedy duo. The first event it listed was this very Long Now talk, dated January 2018, in which Mann supposedly interviewed Stephenson about Polostan. Mann said his wife often accuses him of being late, but six years would be a record.

The error still pointed to something real. Mann recalled that around 2017 the two were in Utah and Stephenson unexpectedly said he wanted to ride a horse. When Mann asked why, Stephenson said he had an idea for a book involving horses and the West. So the novel had clearly been in his head a long time, and Mann asked what it means to carry a novel, or an open-ended cycle of novels, for that long.

Stephenson traced the project to 2013. That year his friend Seamus Blackley, a physicist whom Stephenson described as the father of the Xbox, told him about a particular story from the years just before the Manhattan Project. Stephenson found it compelling both as physics and as human drama. The two kept in touch about it, and Stephenson persuaded his publisher to sign a contract for the books.

Then other books kept getting in the way. He told the publisher he had another idea he could write faster, which became Seveneves. The same thing happened again with The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O., Fall; or, Dodge in Hell, and Termination Shock. After Termination Shock, he said, the publisher reminded him that they had signed a contract ten years earlier and he needed to write these books. He went back to his 2013 notes, organized them, and assembled the first volume. He has more material that will go into a second.

Stephenson argued that letting ideas percolate for years can work well. The idea for Seveneves came to him in 2004. He poked at it and wrote bits of it over the years, and the book came out much later. Parts of Reamde simmered for a similar length of time. He said letting projects sit "on a low boil" for a long time can lead to good results.

Rabbit Holes and the Polo Ponies of Wyoming

Mann listed some of the book's subjects: polo strategy, the contents of the Chicago World's Fair of the early 1930s, machine-gun smuggling, and Soviet steel production. As a nonfiction writer, Mann said, each of these looked to him like a rabbit hole. He admitted his own computer is full of carefully worked-out excerpts of three or four thousand words that turned out to be irrelevant. Was it the same for Stephenson? Stephenson said he is trying to move away from that method to be more efficient. Mann replied, "good luck."

Stephenson said that, like Mann, he can now recognize a rabbit hole when he sees one, a skill that takes time to learn. Polo was his main example. While researching the 1930s he kept running into polo, which surprised him because today the sport seems like a niche pastime for the wealthy. Back then it was far more widespread, he explained, because armies still had horse cavalry, and wherever there was active cavalry there was polo, since it was used as training. Even the Soviet Red Army had a polo team.

Following that thread, he found something he "did not see coming at all": around Gillette, Wyoming, there were ranches that bred and trained polo ponies for a worldwide market much larger than today's. Breeding alone was not enough. The horses had to be taught to play the game a little, or they were useless. So the ranch staff, whom Stephenson described as white cowboys, Black people, Native Americans, and Hispanics, all knew how to play polo as part of their jobs. The result was highly multiethnic teams of expert players riding around Wyoming to train horses for an upper-crust sport. Wealthy buyers came from all over the world on something like safari vacations and went home with expensive horses.

Stephenson called this "a rabbit hole to end all rabbit holes" and said he was proud that he did not go down it. There is no 150-page polo section, though there easily could have been. The fact is simply mentioned, and it explains why the main character, a young woman who had worked on one of these ranches, can play polo even though she comes from a class that normally would not.

Historical Fiction Is Not a Departure

Mann noted that reviews of the book had been very favorable. One, in The Washington Post, called Polostan a new departure for Stephenson. Mann knew that was wrong, since Stephenson had written historical novels before, but it made him ask whether Stephenson sees historical novels as fundamentally different from science fiction.

Stephenson said he does not. As a child he read thick science fiction anthologies drawn from magazines like Analog. Among the short stories he would sometimes come across one that was simply historical, occasionally with science-fictional elements and sometimes with none, tossed off by a science fiction writer. Reading a lot of the genre, especially the golden-age writers he grew up on, made it obvious to him that many of them were "history geeks." In his view, nobody inside the science fiction world finds it surprising when a science fiction writer does history. It only looks strange from outside.

Rules for Handling the Historical Record

Mann suggested that writing historical fiction is also world-building: a 1930s America is in some ways as much a fantasy creation as a future society. He asked what rules Stephenson follows. He contrasted writers like Hilary Mantel, who would claim that her characters' actions are documented and only their thoughts are imagined, with others who feel free to rearrange chronology for the sake of the story.

Stephenson said his general approach is to place historical figures, as far as possible, where they actually were, doing what they are known to have done, and to weave the story around that. Because he also invents fictional characters who can do whatever he likes, sticking to the record does not significantly limit his freedom. Occasionally a situation comes up where having a historical figure do something that did not happen would be "really cool" or would solve a problem. He said he does not follow any one rule set with total rigor.

Travel Versus First-Person Accounts

Mann asked whether traveling to his settings matters. Stephenson said he used to do more of that, and what he learned resembles the rabbit-hole problem: in 24 hours in a new place you can absorb a book's worth of research, and then you feel it all has to go into the book, which does not always serve the storytelling.

It depends on the project. For Reamde, much of which is set in Xiamen, where the two traveled together, the trip was very valuable because the book was contemporary and everything he saw was usable. The further back a historical novel goes, the more a place has changed, sometimes beyond recognition, and you end up hunting for an odd little museum or historic site to get a sense of how it once looked.

He said first-person accounts from the period are often better. You can still visit a place to understand its layout, but written testimony gives more. Part of Polostan takes place in Magnitogorsk, a giant Soviet steel mill in the Urals. An American engineer went there in exactly that period to work on the project and wrote a concrete, simple, day-to-day account. Stephenson noted it contained no abstraction, ideology, or politics, just details like needing to go find a wrench or that it was very cold that day. He considers impressions like these much more useful than visiting today and trying to imagine what it looked like before everything changed.

Breaking the "Well-Made Novel"

Mann said that when he reread his stack of Stephenson's books to prepare, he noticed something. Writers constantly meet books and lectures on how to write a novel, built around something like the nineteenth-century idea of the well-made play, with a proper arc. Stephenson's books ignore that model. In Seveneves, you turn a page and read "5,000 years later," which Mann thought might be a first in literature. He said it threw him out of the book, and he pictured Stephenson rubbing his hands in glee at the curveball. Reamde, Mann said, is a 700-page chase scene. Fall presents itself as a semi-realistic satire and then turns into something like Paradise Lost and Greek myth. Was this deliberate, or does Stephenson simply let each book's structure follow its ideas?

Stephenson answered by describing the conventional path to becoming a writer and how he missed it. Aspiring writers are often told to start short and work up to long forms, beginning with a journal and then a short story. He tried that and got discouraged because he could not write short pieces, and he concluded it was never going to work for him.

Then, as a college student in Boston, he was living in what he called a horrific slum apartment where they hunted cockroaches with vacuum cleaners. Over a roughly ten-day spring break, with no money to go home and nothing to do, he sat down at a typewriter and wrote a novel. He said it "just kind of happened." That was when he realized that although he could not write short stories, he could write novels.

He described a similar ladder in science fiction. Aspiring writers go to conventions, volunteer at them, publish short pieces in fanzines and similar venues, build connections, and eventually publish a first novel. He bypassed this too. His first two books, The Big U and Zodiac, were not really science fiction, so when Snow Crash came out, it appeared from nowhere as far as the science fiction world was concerned. He said most people there thought that was cool, though some were a little miffed. He stressed that he has no problem with these systematic paths. He skipped them for contingent reasons, and much of what has happened to him came through "very, very fortunate accidents."

He said the writers who influenced him most were the ones who did things he had not realized were allowed. William Gibson's Neuromancer was unmistakably science fiction but written in what Stephenson called literary-grade prose. Others may have done that before, but it was new to him and it blew his mind. He had similar reactions to David Foster Wallace, Thomas Pynchon, and others. Seeing writers go beyond the perceived limits of the art form and get away with it was what energized him most when he was starting out.

Carbon and the Inability to Agree on What's Real

The audience questions began with what Mann described as an "extremely light and almost trivial" one. A listener named Sarah asked whether, as a student of humanity in the flow of chaos and order, Stephenson thinks humans can avert the worst outcomes of our current predicaments. Stephenson missed the sarcasm at first, then said it is obviously the most important question.

He named two big problems: carbon, and the fact that "we can't agree on what's real." He said he does not know what to do about the second and finds it hard to imagine a technical fix. For carbon, he thinks technical fixes exist and will be implemented. He recalled saying at an earlier Long Now talk for Termination Shock that it would be the biggest engineering project in history, and said much of what he has seen since confirms that many people are now putting their time and energy into it. Politically, though, he said we are clearly in dark times, and he closed with "ask me in a month," which drew applause.

Can Generative AI Build the Primer from The Diamond Age?

A listener asked whether generative AI makes the "Primer" from The Diamond Age possible now or soon. Mann explained that it is a smart book that teaches children and dynamically changes its content according to what the child needs.

Stephenson said that in one sense this can be done now. You could ask generative AI for a daily lesson, for example teaching a particular child the multiplication tables with a pedagogical approach suited to them. What is missing, he said, is weaving the lessons into a story, plus the human element. In the novel, the Primer's content is not the whole thing: there is a human connection between the girl who owns the book and a "ractor," a performer who plays the characters in it. Stephenson suggested that this human connection, combined with a plot that pulls the story forward, is what makes a child want to learn, rather than receiving a disorganized set of lessons. Those are the areas where he thinks progress is needed before a true Primer exists.

Mann pointed to a related idea in Fall. The internet is so full of garbage that people hire editors to curate it for them, and they read the editor's feed instead of engaging with the net directly. Mann joked that AI, which generates the nonsense, would also create a new class of jobs for the people it puts out of work. Stephenson returned to the AI overview from the start of the evening: it is now part of the record, and even as they spoke, AIs were presumably training on the "knowledge" that the two had discussed Polostan in 2018.

The Difficulty of Making Science Fiction Writers Happy

Another listener asked about Stephenson's earlier call for more positive science fiction. He said it led to Hieroglyph, an anthology produced through Arizona State University's Center for Science and the Imagination, for which science fiction writers were asked to write in that spirit. His own contribution, about a tall tower, is now available as a slim standalone book, Atmosphæra Incognita.

He said not much more has happened since, and he has not done further work on it. They found it "curiously difficult to get science fiction writers to be happy," which made the project almost a negative result: it was very hard to get people out of the dystopian groove.

Mann recalled that one of Stephenson's essays gave an economic reason films lean dystopian, and asked whether the same applies to written science fiction. Stephenson explained the film argument: it is cheaper to depict a bad-looking future than a good-looking one, because you can take the present, throw dirt on it, set fire to it, and cover everything in graffiti. He said this is literally what you see on screen, and the low cost creates an incentive for dystopias in film and TV. He does not think the same holds for written science fiction. Although there are dystopian novels, he sees the literary landscape as much more varied than the screen's.

No Nostalgia for the Past

An anonymous question asked whether there is a time Stephenson feels nostalgic for without having lived in it. He said he is in the camp that thinks things were "really shitty" until fairly recently. There are periods he would like to visit briefly and places he is curious about, but he is not nostalgic for any of them.

Mann asked whether he would want to live before antibiotics ("no way"), and brought up Our World in Data, Max Roser's Oxford-based project that charts data on the human condition over time. One of its most striking charts, Mann said, is maternal mortality, along with childhood death. The figures fall off a cliff in a good way. Mann added that combined with the lack of birth control, this pushes the change to around the 1960s. Stephenson summarized the situation of women in earlier societies: unless a woman took extreme measures to isolate herself, she would almost certainly become pregnant, and she knew there was a high chance she would die from it.

Dawn, the Women's Death Battalions, and Machine Guns

Mann connected this to Polostan. The protagonist is a young woman who is acutely aware of how men look at her, at a time when rules against sexual assault were vague and the consequences for her could be severe.

Stephenson explained that the protagonist, called Dawn or Aurora, had an early relationship with an older Russian woman named Veronica, a soldier in one of the women's death battalions. He called this another "can't make it up" fact. These battalions were very hardcore female fighting units. He said they initially fought, he believed, for Kerensky's side, but some went over to the Bolsheviks, becoming something like an elite squad of Soviet Amazon warriors.

He also described a trope in Soviet culture of the period: the female machine gunner. According to Stephenson, the Soviets of the time held strong and sincere feminist ideas and took it for granted that women would serve in the military. But integrating women into standard infantry formations in 1917 was unlikely to work. He described infantry life as a never-ending nightmare Boy Scout camping trip: marching in formation with a ten-pound rifle, ammunition, and camping gear, pitching tents, and living in the middle of nowhere for months.

The machine gun, a comparatively new weapon, created an opening for a new kind of unit. The gun was too heavy for one person, so it was split into about four parts, each carried by a different squad member, who then assembled it and got it working on arrival. Stephenson said it was complicated and delicate and had to be kept clean, "more like a sewing machine" than a bolt-action rifle. As he described the reasoning of the time, women were good at operating sewing machines, could carry a quarter of a machine gun, and in a separate unit would not have to live cheek by jowl with the infantrymen.

Meeting such a woman at an impressionable age makes a strong impression on Dawn and teaches her to look out for herself. Later she ends up in the United States during the heyday of the public-enemy era: Pretty Boy Floyd, John Dillinger, Baby Face Nelson, and above all Bonnie and Clyde. Stephenson mentioned the famous photo of Bonnie sitting on the fender of a getaway car, smoking a cigar and holding a Tommy gun. All of this combines in the character's mind into a fascination with high-powered automatic weapons, which helps drive part of the plot.

Is the Enlightenment Over?

Another listener asked whether the Enlightenment is over. Stephenson said no. He thinks it is deeply entrenched and ubiquitous, to the point where people do not realize how much of what they do and think came from Enlightenment thinking. He drew a parallel with historian Tom Holland's argument about Christianity: even Westerners who do not consider themselves Christian in any way have many implicitly Christian reactions and beliefs. Mann added the environmental movement as an example, since it constantly seeks to regain an Edenic paradise of the past, and noted with some embarrassment that he had written about this in The Wizard and the Prophet.

Learning About the Eastern Bloc by Reading

A listener named Florin, who grew up in the Eastern Bloc, complimented Stephenson's characters from that background and asked what sources let him understand the culture so well. Mann paraphrased it as "why are you so great."

Stephenson called his answer prosaic: he reads books. As a child, a grandfather of "somewhat gloomy disposition" insisted he read The Gulag Archipelago. Stephenson thinks his grandfather wanted to make the point that communism was bad, and said the point landed, since it is hard to avoid that conclusion after all three volumes. Beyond that, he said, it is simply reading the available material and trying to learn some history.

The Scope of Bomb Light

Asked how extensive the series will be, Stephenson compared it to the Baroque Cycle, which he described as roughly eight books the length of Polostan, grouped into three volumes. For Bomb Light he has at least three volumes in mind and thinks a fourth is fairly likely. He expects the series to be shorter overall but of comparable heft or scope. He explained that the Baroque Cycle required a lot of description of what that world looked like, and a book set in the more recent past needs less of that. He can mention an automobile without explaining it.

Mann noted that Stephenson had written on his Substack that each book would center on a single character, and asked who leads volume two. Stephenson said it is a British journalist, introduced at the very end of Polostan, loosely modeled on Peter Fleming.

A Fan Detour on Peter Fleming

Mann, calling Fleming one of his favorite writers, briefly "fanboyed." Peter Fleming was the brother of Ian Fleming. Mann described Peter as the far better writer and the golden boy at the school they both attended, destined for greatness, while Ian was expected to end up in a ditch, which Mann said he nearly did. Mann called Peter's journalism and travel writing some of the finest there is, and singled out Brazilian Adventure as one of the best books ever written about Brazil.

Mann explained its setup by comparing it to The Lost City of Z, the book about Percy Fawcett's disappearance and attempts to trace him. Mann said Fleming had written about the same subject decades earlier. Unlike David Grann, Mann said, Fleming actually went there, and he chronicled his total failure to find anything. The expedition began with a harebrained newspaper ad along the lines of "I'm going to Brazil, anyone want to come?", and Fleming had no idea what he was doing. Mann said it is still a wonderful book that teaches a lot about Brazil at the time, in a dry, deadpan voice. Fleming's recurring persona is someone traveling through extremely dangerous places and being saved by luck time after time, which Mann suspects was partly an act but a very good one. Mann also praised Fleming's book on the Boxer Rebellion and noted that most of his work is out of print and has to be found secondhand.

Stephenson pointed to something he is not sure writers can do anymore. Fleming, a correspondent for The Times of London, was writing for a small circle of highly educated, clever English men, so he could drop in witticisms and dry humor that would land with them but not necessarily with a wider audience. Fleming also mocked nearly everyone he met and could be scathing, and Stephenson said the Boxer Rebellion book "is not a highly sensitive document." Mann countered that stupidity is an underappreciated factor in human life and history, and that Fleming was a rich appreciator of it. Stephenson added that although the besiegers of the legations were the villains of the Boxer Rebellion, every national embassy, European and Japanese, had its own set of fools, and Fleming treated them all with uniformly scathing contempt.

What He Learned About the Period: The Ukrainian Famine

A listener named David asked what Stephenson learned about the period that differs from the standard interpretation. He pointed to his understanding of the famine in Ukraine, which occurs during the book's timeframe and which he came to understand only between starting the book and finishing it last year. He had heard there was a famine, but history is full of famines. Then he read Anne Applebaum's Red Famine, which explains it as a systematic, man-made famine imposed on Ukraine by Russia as an act of violence. He called it a completely horrifying, depressing book, with many descriptions of the process of starving to death.

He was careful to add that this was not a clever discovery of an obscure fact on his part. It was just him bothering to read the book and learn what is "horrifically obvious" to people who live in that region. He does not credit himself with discovering anything new about the period. So much history is fascinating that simply telling the story almost as it happened can make for a very interesting novel.

The Soviet Union Before It Became the Enemy

Mann observed that while Stephenson does not need to explain what a car is, the Soviet Union may need explaining, since 1989 is long past and even well-read young people may not grasp the place it held in the American imagination.

Stephenson noted that the book is set in 1933, before the purges. Stalin was in power and, in Stephenson's words, had murdered millions of Ukrainians and gotten away with it, because the Western press reporting from Moscow either did not bother to learn the truth or willfully turned a blind eye. As a result, a reasonably well-read person in the United States or Britain at the time had not yet formed the view of the Soviet Union that people would hold decades later. Many were still flocking there with idealistic notions of helping out. Capitalists saw it as an enemy, but most people did not. Dawn's father was one of those who went to help.

Asked how many such people there were, Stephenson said he did not remember the total. Mann added that people had been going since right after the revolution, in the late 1910s and early 1920s, to be part of history, and many became disillusioned and returned. Stephenson recommended Emma Goldman's writing on this and, for a truly scathing account, Malcolm Muggeridge's Winter in Moscow, which describes Western expats in Moscow with the same contempt Peter Fleming aimed at, say, the Belgian ambassador. Mann mentioned Langston Hughes, who toured a little later and wrote a book about it. Mann called it wonderful but "a complete fantasy," given the gap between what Hughes thought he saw and what we now know. Unlike Muggeridge, Hughes bought it.

The Wobblies and the Two Lefts

Mann noted that the left was a much stronger force throughout the developed world at the time and asked whether groups like the Wobblies would play a role. Stephenson said there is a lot of Wobbly material in the book. He described the IWW as a comparatively intense labor union that was a big deal in Seattle, which is how he first learned about it.

He described a cultural split in the American left, while saying he was grossly simplifying. In the East, immigrant factory workers took orders from Moscow. In the West, miners with a heavily anarchic, libertarian mindset were slugging it out with corporate thugs. The two produced very different approaches to labor relations, and that becomes a driving element of the story. Mann noted that Dawn comes from Montana but moves East. Stephenson explained that her father is of the Eastern, Moscow-oriented type and her mother is a woman of the West. He doubts there will be much more of that thread, because the story needs to move on to the middle and late 1930s. There will be some Spanish Civil War material, for example, but less about American labor.

Hollywood: Nothing to Announce

Finally, Mann asked about the adaptations he keeps hearing about. Stephenson said work is currently being done on Snow Crash, Seveneves, and The Diamond Age, which he called the biggies at the moment. They had pushed hard on D.O.D.O. for a while and might try to revive it. He explained that you do not announce anything until certain documents are signed. Before then, rumors spread easily, and you often see reports that someone will star in some movie, only to realize five years later that it never happened. All these projects are being worked on with varying intensity, he said, but there is nothing concrete he can talk about. Mann's closing remark was that those people are certainly very good at generating cycles of activity when they want to.