Rapid Robotics' Jordan Kretchmer on Scaling Robot Deployment Through Software and Vision

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Overview

Jordan Kretchmer came to robotics without an engineering background, after more than a decade in marketing technology. In this episode of Manufacturing Happy Hour, recorded at Rapid Robotics' workshop in San Francisco, Kretchmer argues that industrial robotics can't close the US manufacturing labor gap as long as robots are deployed the traditional way. The hardware is not the bottleneck, in their view. The bottleneck is the cost and time of installing and programming each robot. Kretchmer also explains why the company deliberately cut its spending and shifted its resources toward computer vision, and what that shift meant for investors and customers.

18 min read

A workshop in the middle of the city

The conversation takes place at Rapid Robotics' space at 100 Hooper Street in San Francisco, near the Design District. Kretchmer says the area has a lot of production- and manufacturing-oriented space and two maker studios, one of which Rapid has collaborated with. According to Kretchmer, good hardware-oriented space is rare in San Francisco. Most of what's available is old warehouses without heat or air conditioning. This building is new, with floor-to-ceiling glass, open workshop space on the ground floor, and desks upstairs. The company looked at about ten other spaces before choosing it.

Location mattered too. The site is a three-minute walk from Caltrain, so employees who live in the South Bay can commute easily, and it's close to the highways. Kretchmer says the space also serves as a showplace. Customers come to run tests (factory acceptance tests, or "FATs") before systems are deployed at their sites, and Rapid hosts customer events there.

Why leave martech for robotics

The host asks how Kretchmer went from founding Livefyre, a cloud-based content and community platform for marketers and publishers that Adobe acquired, to robotics. Kretchmer says they spent about 12 years in martech, first as Livefyre's founder and CEO and then as a general manager over three business units at Adobe. They say they never meant to get into martech. The market simply happened to be there for the technology they were building. By the end, they were "pretty done" with it.

After the acquisition, Kretchmer spent about two years figuring out what to do next. The one firm requirement was that the work have an impact on the real world. They built a successful business in marketing, they say, but never felt it was valuable to society. So they took what they had learned about running an enterprise SaaS business and looked at sectors tied to physical life: energy, supply chain, warehousing, and manufacturing.

Kretchmer calls manufacturing "the lifeblood" and the starting point of nearly everything that makes society run. They cite it as about 14% of US GDP. The numbers they give show the gap: the labor shortage is growing at roughly 25% per year in the US, while robot installations grow at about 2% per year. At that rate, Kretchmer says, robotic workforces can't have a meaningful economic impact unless deployment becomes scalable.

To Kretchmer, scalability means two things: affordability and high repeatability. The approach they describe uses technology that lets a robot "self-learn and adapt to its environment with human instincts" instead of being hard-coded for one job. A work cell trained on one type of part can then be replicated across many robots doing the same task with little extra overhead. The benchmark Kretchmer sets is that a customer should be able to deploy 100 robots for the same price and time it would take to deploy four or five the traditional way.

Kretchmer ties this to national competitiveness and supply-chain risk. They point to COVID, the Suez Canal blockage caused by a stuck ship, and the war in the Middle East as disruptions no one could control. In their view, reliable supply chains and lower prices and inflation depend on localizing manufacturing in the US.

"The robot doesn't matter"

When Kretchmer found the robotics opportunity and met the people who became Rapid's founding team, they did not understand robotics. They had taught themselves about manufacturing and visited 30-some facilities, so they understood the problem. The technology required the right people. Kretchmer says diversity of background is one of Rapid's core values, because more perspectives lead to better decisions. Their own contribution was the business model now called robotics as a service (RaaS), which Kretchmer says didn't have a name at the time. They argue it took a different kind of thinking than two robotics PhDs founding an AI robotics company would have brought five years earlier.

The host asks whether others are making a similar move from software or other non-physical industries into manufacturing. Kretchmer says they don't personally know anyone else who has jumped from a completely unrelated industry into manufacturing and robotics. They attribute their path partly to not being an engineer. They weren't looking for a technology. They were looking for a market with a specific need, a technology solution to that need, and a business model that would pay back customers quickly and still produce enough revenue to support a growing company. Robots in manufacturing happened to be where that opportunity was, so they went deep on it.

Investors asked at the seed, Series A, and Series B rounds what gave Kretchmer the right to start a robotics company. Kretchmer's answer was that "the robot doesn't matter." Rapid can use any arm on the market, from inexpensive cobots up to Fanuc, Yaskawa, and Universal Robots. The robot is just a tool at the end of what the company actually builds: software that runs the arm without programming and handles variability in the work cell the way a human would. Kretchmer adds that they can now program a robot somewhat, because teammates taught them. But they say it doesn't matter, because customers don't know how to program robots either. Customers just want a solution that is valuable, profitable, reliable, fast, and scalable.

What Rapid Robotics does, in bar terms

Asked how they'd explain the company to someone over a drink (a margarita, they specify), Kretchmer says Rapid develops software that gives an off-the-shelf robotic arm "human instincts." Those instincts relate to manufacturing operations common to almost every sector. Examples include putting a piece of plastic into a machine hundreds of times, or packing lunch meat into a box a thousand times a day. Kretchmer says robots should be doing that work. Humans are high-value, and there aren't enough people who want these jobs to keep up with production. Rapid's pitch is to make automation affordable and fast, with reliability equal to or, in many cases, better than a human's.

Rapid 1.0: automating the deployment process

Kretchmer says the company started about four and a half years ago. Its mission hasn't changed: to deliver the world's largest fully automated labor workforce. The first roughly three to three and a half years went into internal tooling to automate deployment as much as possible. That included process automation, 24/7 support, dashboards for managing customer equipment, remote support, and cloud infrastructure for communicating with robots and teaching them new tasks without a site visit.

By Kretchmer's account, this worked. Rapid could, and still can, deploy 25 to 40 robots a month, which they say is far more than most systems integrators. After a deal closed, a system could be producing real parts at the customer's site three to four weeks later. Kretchmer contrasts that with the 12 to 18 months a systems integrator might take given wait times.

Why 40 robots a month wasn't the goal

The problem, Kretchmer says, is the size of the labor gap. They put it at upwards of 700,000 unfilled manufacturing positions, which makes it a problem of hundreds of thousands to millions of workers, not dozens or hundreds of robots. Under the existing model, more deployments meant hiring more deployment technicians. Rapid could have kept doing that, but Kretchmer argues this should be solved with technology, not headcount. Reaching 100 deployments a month the old way was not the goal.

The refocus therefore moves resources into maturing Rapid's computer vision technology, so the system can see what's happening in the work cell and respond in real time. Kretchmer calls this the Rapid ID Suite, short for rapid identification, with rapid grasping as part of it. The system identifies a part, picks it whether it's static or in motion, and places it accurately. The focus is on core IP in computer vision and model training that allows new parts to be onboarded with zero programming on the robot side. Kretchmer says the goal is eventually deploying thousands of robots a month, because only easily repeatable technology can fill a shortage that large.

Cutting burn before being forced to

The host points out that the refocus wasn't driven by a startup running out of runway. Kretchmer agrees. Rapid had closed a $40 million Series B roughly two and a half to three years earlier, so it had cash. At the time, they say, the market, new investors, and the board all pushed "growth at all costs." The company built a large go-to-market team, with marketing, sales, and SDRs, and closed a lot of deals.

Those deals weren't profitable enough, Kretchmer says. Revenue was growing very well, but burn was growing even faster. The company decided that if it didn't take control of its spending, it would end up like many other robotics and non-robotics companies that assume market dynamics will change and sales will get easier as customers understand the product. Kretchmer says they don't like running a business that depends on external factors falling into place.

The transition took a six-month planning process with the board and investors. According to Kretchmer, Rapid brought its burn rate down 10x from six months earlier. It did this without losing a single customer and while maintaining support levels and revenue. They describe the company as close to profitable. Shifting resources to technology that doesn't require growing the team with every deal is, in their account, what drives profitability.

Kretchmer says existing investors were "thrilled," because the investor market has moved away from growth at all costs toward balanced businesses and sensible customer acquisition cost ratios. Their example: spending $100,000 in total to close a deal worth $120,000 a year is not a good deal. Rapid isn't raising now, but Kretchmer says the reaction has been very positive when they introduce the business to new investors. They present it as "Rapid 1.0" versus "Rapid 2.0," and explain the hard decisions behind the change. Kretchmer says transparency has always been the best approach with investors. One investor said they wished all their companies would do the same. Another asked Kretchmer to give a kind of master class to their portfolio companies, after watching four well-funded companies "drive themselves into the ground" waiting for outside conditions to change. Kretchmer calls the transition very difficult but says the company is through it.

Lessons for leaders

Asked for the key takeaways from such a master class, Kretchmer offers two.

  1. Don't wait for the gun to be at your head. Kretchmer says that if the gun is a date when the money runs out, you won't make good decisions. It's like putting a whole company under duress while hoping an investor rescues you or a big customer signs. Neither is in your control. Because Rapid acted far in advance, it could plan every part of the business, from five different financial models covering different scenarios to headcount, demand generation, and which customers to pursue.
  2. Take control of what you can control. You can be hopeful about things outside your control, Kretchmer says, but you shouldn't run your business on them.

Keeping customers through the change

Customers did have questions, Kretchmer says. For example, some asked why the deployment technician who installed their robot was no longer around. Rapid explained that it was moving from one technician working on one deployment at a time to one technician handling ten at once, which is the scale it needs. Kretchmer says one of Rapid's core values is treating customers as partners: Rapid is part of the customer's team and vice versa. Because trust had been built over years of working together, Kretchmer says customers responded that they were glad Rapid was making decisions that would keep it around in ten years. They report no complaints or concerns, as long as the company was transparent about what was happening.

Why vision now, and not four years ago

Kretchmer says computer vision was always part of Rapid's plans, and the company had already shipped vision features that shortened setup and deployment. One example is Smart Setup, released about two years ago. Previously, a robot staged in Rapid's facility would need its waypoints reprogrammed once it was rolled up to the machine on the customer's floor. With Smart Setup, cameras look at the surroundings and adjust the waypoints, and can readjust them when something in the cell changes, without reprogramming.

That was as far as vision could go at the time, Kretchmer says, because pick-and-place requires very high accuracy. Whether loading a machine or packing a box, "a human doesn't miss." Four and a half years ago, reliably grasping any object, manipulating it, and placing it accurately didn't seem attainable. Since then, cameras have improved and robot arm SDK response times have gotten faster. Rapid increasingly concluded that vision could solve the whole problem, not just setup.

Kretchmer points to maturity on both the hardware and software sides, including how models are trained. Rapid is working on a few-shot approach: take five pictures of an object and infer everything about it, so the company wouldn't need to train models on specific objects. Kretchmer describes this as "in the works" and says it would not have been possible three or four years ago. The target is reliability. Kretchmer says the system shouldn't fail even one in a thousand times; it shouldn't fail at all. They say progress in the field is what gives Rapid the confidence to focus in this direction.

AI in practical terms: learning what a box is

The host asks for a pragmatic, fluff-free explanation of how AI fits in. Kretchmer uses the simplest object: a box. In the old approach, every new box meant training a model on that specific box before a robot could palletize it or pack it into a larger box. Kretchmer says AI lets Rapid train its system on what a box is. It has a range of sizes, may have tape or labels, and can be brown, white, or plastic. Any box can then pass through the camera system, and the robot responds immediately, finding the center point because it has identified the object as a box.

The second element is intent. Kretchmer says AI lets Rapid program "intent-based," or human-instinct-like, actions. Objects may come down a conveyor in slightly different positions, and there might be 20 different kinds. The old way would require training on each one. In Rapid's approach, the system recognizes each object and knows what to do with it: these objects go in that box, those go on another conveyor. The camera makes decisions based on the pre-defined intent and its AI-based training.

Accessibility through simplicity

The final substantive question is how to make AI, vision, automation, and robotics accessible to the masses. Kretchmer's answer is to make the hardware and software as opaque to the customer as possible. Customers don't care how it's built or how it works. Another of Rapid's core values is "simplicity over complexity": show customers only what they need to start and stop the system, and handle everything else automatically.

Recovery is one example. If something goes wrong, the customer shouldn't have to notice it and file a support ticket. Kretchmer says Rapid should be able to tell what happened from force and torque sensing and camera input. Because the arm is intent-based, it knows what to do to resolve the problem on the conveyor.

Kretchmer calls this the "Salesforce-ification" of robotic deployments. In their telling, Salesforce made on-premise software obsolete, along with the cost of standing up server farms and customized proprietary systems. Rapid wants to bring the same shift to robotics. Kretchmer argues the arms are now inexpensive. The expensive, time-consuming part is installation and ongoing oversight, and that is what should be commoditized.

Kretchmer cites a customer currently at the proposal stage. For the price of one traditionally automated work cell on one of their 100 lines, they could get ten Rapid work cells. If automating a line traditionally costs $3 million, Kretchmer says, automating all 100 lines means $300 million in capex, and the customer might do one or two lines a year. Under Rapid's model, they could do ten lines in a year for the same money a systems integrator would charge. The host connects this to Kretchmer's original motivation: the less capital-intensive robot deployment becomes, the more impact it can have on manufacturing and GDP. Kretchmer agrees.

A margarita to close

With nothing left they felt was missing, Kretchmer answers the host's follow-up about where to get that margarita. They call tropical cocktails "vacation drinks." Since they don't drink often, they want a drink that feels like the beach: not too sweet, spirit-forward, and refreshing. They name a place they call Leo Leo, recommending its rum cocktails and a drink called the Mr. Skipper, and say the food is excellent too. Kretchmer adds that they find most of the city's tiki bars too sweet, and prefer original-style mai tais and natural margaritas, which they say are hard to find.