Clint Bundy on Why Selling a Business Is a "War over the Numbers"

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Overview

On this episode of Manufacturing Happy Hour, host Chris talks with Clint Bundy, Managing Director at Bundy Group, an M&A advisory and investment banking firm. The conversation centers on how buyers and sellers fight over the valuation of a business, and on why Bundy thinks that fight is won or lost long before a company goes to market. Bundy's position is that deals come down to defensible numbers and good systems, but also to psychology and to whether the owner is truly ready to let go. The episode was recorded near the end of 2024 for release in early 2025.

17 min read

An Early Lesson: The Seller Who Fainted in the Parking Lot

Chris opened by asking for one of the wildest M&A stories Bundy had seen. Bundy picked one from early in their career, around 2003 or 2004, when Bundy Group still handled smaller transactions. They and a colleague were helping two brothers sell a family-owned restaurant in Southwest Virginia to an individual buyer relocating from upstate New York.

On closing day, everyone was at the restaurant doing the inventory count, which Bundy says is standard on restaurant deals. The count focuses especially on alcohol, because it is such a key part of what the buyer is purchasing. The next step was to drive to the attorney's office to sign the purchase agreements. Bundy noted that closings like this now happen virtually, and they haven't been in an attorney's conference room for a closing in years.

When Bundy and their colleague walked outside, one brother was lying on the ground in the parking lot. He had fainted from the stress of selling. The brothers' mother, who had come for the inventory count, was fanning him with a magazine. The other brother stood over him yelling at him to get up so they could go sign the documents. The buyer watched from the side, shaking his head. Bundy's colleague drove one brother to the lawyer's office. Bundy took the other brother and the mother, gave him Gatorade bought at a grocery store, and stopped so he could buy a pack of cigarettes to calm his anxiety attack. The documents got signed. For Bundy, the story shows how emotional selling a business can be for an owner, a theme that came up again later in the conversation.

Growing Up Inside the Family Firm

Bundy's résumé includes work as what was effectively a financial controller managing a team's budgets at Accenture, an MBA, and time in an M&A group at a bank. But Bundy said the real foundation was growing up inside Bundy Group, which their father founded in 1989 when Clint was in middle school.

Through high school and college, Bundy made cold calls to potential clients and referral partners, tagged along to buyer and seller meetings, and took long car rides with their father to places like Wheeling, West Virginia, and Mount Airy, North Carolina. On those drives they talked about sales strategy, which buyers to target, and how to handle clients who were ambivalent about selling. Bundy said this "built my DNA." After trying consulting and a few other things, Bundy decided in their mid-20s to go into investment banking.

Asked what they wish they had known earlier, Bundy said experience is the best teacher in this business. Then they reframed the question slightly: they wish they had done a better job of explaining to business owners the value an advisor delivers. In their 20s Bundy thought they were doing that well. Looking back from their 40s, they think they could have done better. A service provider has to answer one question clearly: how is the client better off, financially, in outcome, and in other ways, with the advisor than without?

The "War over the Numbers"

Before the interview, Bundy had described buying and selling a business as a "war over the numbers." Bundy acknowledged the phrase sounds "Draconian" but said there is a lot of truth to it.

The buyers Bundy's firm usually deals with fall into two groups. Financial sponsors are mainly private equity groups. Strategic buyers are operating companies that are experienced at acquisitions. In Bundy's words, both are "in the arbitrage business." Their goal is to buy good companies at the most buyer-friendly price they can, and most of them are very good at it.

Valuation negotiations start from the seller's financial and operational data. Bundy said this is the starting point, not necessarily the ending point. Buyers have an incentive to "position" that data, or "manipulate" it if you prefer that word, so the numbers look weaker than the seller believes they are. Then they use that framing to push the price down. The sell-side advisor's job is the reverse: present the strongest possible financials and the strongest story about the company's past, present, and future, and "run that arbitrage playbook in reverse" to get the seller an above-market price.

Protecting the Integrity of the Numbers

Chris asked how companies can use data and technology to defend their numbers when a buyer pushes back. Bundy called this a topic their firm advises owners on constantly. From the day you start, buy, or take over a business, they said, you need solid financial and operational systems. Those systems let you track data and support claims about performance, so that when a sale or capital raise eventually comes, you can handle nearly any due diligence request.

Bundy said good systems also include people, whether full-time or fractional. In their view, a really good CFO or controller who knows how to manage the financial systems can pay for themselves multiple times over.

Bundy also described a tool the firm often recommends: a sell-side quality of earnings (QoE) report. They called it effectively a financial audit of the seller's books done with an M&A lens. The purpose is to show buyers that the company's financials are tight and defensible and reflect the highest supportable performance. Bundy's advice to sellers was to talk with advisors about how to prepare the company from a sales, value-building, and systems standpoint.

The Sale Process, Start to Finish

Chris asked for the key steps in selling a business, with small machine shop owners facing retirement in mind. Bundy said this could fill its own podcast and gave the broad strokes from the advisor's side. Bundy noted they use "M&A advisor" and "investment banker" as synonyms.

  1. Preparation. The advisor and the company make the numbers as defensible as possible, often using a sell-side QoE. The advisor also learns the company's story well enough to talk about the business almost as well as the owner. Bundy added that they will never talk about it quite as well as the owner.
  2. Going to market. With confidential marketing materials and a data room ready, the advisor approaches a group of buyers agreed on with the seller. The theme is "driving competition."
  3. Offers. Sometimes Bundy Group runs a two-round process, with indications of interest followed by letters of intent. Sometimes it runs one round that goes straight to letters of intent, which are the formal offers. The aim is to educate buyers, narrow the pool to the most relevant and aggressive ones, and use the offers against each other to maximize value and find the best fit. Bundy stressed that the client makes the decision, and the advisor runs the process.
  4. Due diligence and closing. After a letter of intent is signed, due diligence begins and attorneys negotiate the purchase agreement with the advisor's support. The goal is a smooth path to close.

Bundy said the hoped-for result is that at the closing table the owners feel they didn't leave money on the table and are happy with their buyer.

The Most Common Mistake: Not Being Prepared

Asked about the number one mistake sellers make, Bundy said it is not being prepared. Ideally, an owner knows about three years ahead when they plan to go to market. That gives time to talk with an M&A advisor, a transaction accounting firm experienced with quality of earnings reports, and an experienced M&A attorney, and to put internal systems and processes in place. Bundy used a golf analogy, while saying they aren't a great golfer: line up properly on the tee and take practice swings so you hit it 300 yards down the fairway instead of shanking it into the woods. Preparation, they said, increases the chances of a great outcome.

Technology as Proof of Progress and Room for Upside

Chris asked how much of that preparation is about technology. Bundy said "very much so," especially in manufacturing and industrial technology, where Bundy Group specializes. Buyers look at how advanced a target's manufacturing capabilities are. They want to see whether the team has proven it can implement efficiency and technology improvements, and whether there is still room to implement more, which buyers sometimes call gaining synergies. Buyers want evidence that the company has used systems and technology to serve clients better, scale, and increase profit margins.

Chris reflected on the balance. A company that has already optimized everything may offer less upside to an acquirer who knows how to add value. The ideal target shows a proven ability to change while leaving improvements for the buyer to make.

The Owner Who Wasn't Ready

Chris mentioned that Alex, another Bundy Group team member who appeared on the show about a year earlier, had said advisors sometimes act as therapists. Bundy agreed. People sometimes describe investment banking as 50% analytics and 50% psychology. Bundy said that the older they get, the more they think it is about 90% psychology and 10% analytics.

Their example was an automation company and one of Bundy Group's first automation engagements. The owner had taken over his father's HVAC business in the 1970s. Because he had an automation background, he spent the next 30 years turning it into an automation firm doing software, manufacturing, and system integration. He told Bundy Group he was ready to sell. About halfway through the process, the firm had strong buyer interest and was reviewing offers to decide who to invite to the next round. At that point the owner told Bundy, "Clint, great work, I just realized I'm not ready yet." He said he couldn't really explain why.

Bundy quoted a line their father has used for 35 years: "motivation is the foundation of all transactions," meaning you need a motivated buyer and a motivated seller. The company was taken off the market. The owner kept running and growing it. Ten years later he called Bundy back to say it was time, and the business sold within about a year. For Bundy, the story proves that motivation is key.

Four Legs of the Stool: What Makes a Company Valuable

Bundy Group also works in healthcare and life sciences and in business services, alongside what Bundy calls advanced manufacturing and technology-enabled services. Chris asked what lessons from outside the industrial space carry over. Bundy's main takeaway applies across industries: good companies with four value drivers will always attract buyers.

  • Stability: a stable client base, stable revenue, and ideally some recurring or recurring-like revenue.
  • Profitability: strong EBITDA margins (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
  • Growth: past growth, plus a credible story about the future. Bundy stressed that "when a buyer is buying a company they are buying the future," not the past.
  • Scale: enough size and sophistication to have moved beyond the "mom and pop" phase. Bundy said scale is relative and doesn't mean $100 million in revenue.

As evidence, Bundy pointed to 2023, which they described as a down year for M&A overall. Several good Bundy Group clients still sold that year. Bundy credits the firm's process and its pressure on buyers, but said the foundation was that these were good companies.

Market Outlook: 2021 Peak, 2022–23 Hangover, Optimism for 2025

On the broader market, Bundy said the pandemic disrupted M&A, but the market rebounded quickly. By Bundy's account, 2021 was a high-water mark, one of the record years of the past 30 years across all industries, with high valuations and high buyer activity. Part of that was pent-up demand from deals that didn't happen in 2020. Bundy described 2022 and 2023 as a "hangover," with fewer deals. Financial sponsors in particular held on to their companies as interest rates rose and larger deals faced valuation challenges. Privately held family and entrepreneurial businesses kept transacting. Speaking near the end of 2024, Bundy expected the year to beat 2023. With the election behind them, and based on the "tea leaves" they read, they anticipate a strong M&A market in 2025.

For automation specifically, Bundy said the firm has been active in the space for close to 15 years and has never seen stronger demand from financial sponsors and strategic buyers. That held even in 2022 and 2023, when the overall market softened. Bundy Group tracks automation transactions monthly for a couple of publications and saw a robust level of deals in those years. Bundy said the core reason is that buyers like to invest in growth markets, and automation is one. The wider industrial sector, including industrial services and general manufacturing, is also attractive, especially businesses offering value-added services or tied to advanced manufacturing and Industry 4.0.

Who's Buying: The Financial Sponsor Playbook

Bundy explained that financial sponsors are private funds that invest in privately held companies. They buy a "platform" investment, make add-on acquisitions, professionalize the company, and eventually resell the larger platform at a much higher valuation.

Bundy's example was E Tech Group, which Bundy knew when two individuals in Ohio owned it. It recapitalized with Falfurrias Capital Partners, a private equity group in Charlotte, North Carolina. It then made add-on acquisitions, including Glenmount Global Solutions and Superior Controls, the latter tied to life sciences. It professionalized its management team further and was sold the previous year to another financial sponsor, Graham Partners. Bundy called this "textbook" financial sponsor strategy. It also shows how a sponsor-backed company becomes a strategic buyer once it starts acquiring other businesses.

Bundy's punchline was that most strategic buyers in automation, such as Convergix or E Tech Group, are backed by financial sponsors. A few are not. Bundy cited Actemium, backed by Vinci Energies, as a strategic buyer not owned by a financial sponsor.

Who's Selling: A Fragmented Market of Smaller Firms

Chris noted the wave of retirements in manufacturing and asked how many smaller firms are selling. Bundy said automation covers system integrators, machine builders, panel fabricators, IIoT-driven firms, SaaS firms, and automation consultancies. It is highly fragmented. Bundy described many companies between roughly $1 million and $30–40 million in revenue, and a much smaller group above about $30 million.

According to Bundy, many of these companies have no exit strategy. There may be no children in the business, and the management team may not be able to buy out the owner, or at least not fully. That creates opportunity for advisors and for buyers offering a viable exit. Bundy's view is that beyond having good advisors, the best way for an owner to find the right path is a competitive process.

Selling in a Tough Market

For his last question, Chris asked whether Bundy had seen a sale make sense despite poor market conditions. Bundy pointed to the Great Recession, roughly 2008 to 2012 or 2013. The client was an advanced manufacturing company based in the Carolinas that did assembly and manufacturing work on battery packs, such as those used in medical defibrillators. It had a single owner and a good management team. The owner needed to retire, wanted a liquidity event, and wanted the company in a new owner's hands.

Bundy Group told the owner plainly that it could deliver options, but probably not as good as waiting a year or two might produce. Bundy called it a good company, maybe an A-minus or B-plus rather than an A-plus. When Chris asked for clarification, Bundy said the main weakness was size. The company wasn't mom-and-pop, but it was only "a notch or two above that." That missing scale, on top of a difficult market, hurt the most, because many buyers said it simply wasn't big enough for them. Even so, the deal closed with a strategic buyer. Bundy believes the management team is still there many years later. The owner met his goals and was very happy with the outcome.

Chris took from this that no company perfectly checks all four boxes. Bundy agreed: "I'll call you the day I meet a perfect company." The goal is to check as many boxes as possible. A big part of the advisor's job is to assess where a company sits on the four legs of the stool before going to market. Then, in the market, the advisor makes the case with supporting information that the company fits all four and that buyers "need to pay up for this opportunity." That, Bundy said, is a big part of the story in selling a company.