Inside the Semiconductor Boom: What Manufacturers Need to Know Before They Try to Serve It

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Overview

At a live recording of Manufacturing Happy Hour at SEMICON West in Phoenix, Arizona, host Chris asked two industry veterans how manufacturers, especially in the U.S., can take part in the current surge of semiconductor investment. Danielle, global segment manager for semiconductor at Harding, a connectivity company, and Jeff, principal for digital at Rockwell Automation covering advanced electronics and semiconductor, both describe an industry that is technically ambitious and growing fast. They also describe it as risk-averse, slow to adopt new suppliers, and run on data. Their advice to outsiders: learn the language, partner for the long term, and connect to the fab's operational data.

15 min read

What a Fab Is, Explained Over a Beer

The host opened by asking how each guest would explain a "fab" to someone outside the industry, such as a parent or a manufacturing leader from another sector.

Jeff calls it the fabrication plant: the place where the semiconductor itself is made, though not necessarily packaged. For people unfamiliar with the industry, he describes it as the transformation of raw material into a complex device. In that sense, he says, it resembles other complex manufacturing plants.

Danielle compares a fab to CERN. It has similar complexity but runs at production scale. CERN's ring is kilometers around; a fab covers a few hundred thousand to half a million square feet. She calls it "a really fascinating way of manufacturing," very different from automotive or food and packaging. She returns to the CERN comparison later, when explaining why outsiders need to invest in learning the industry.

Why the Boom Is Happening Now: A Circular Relationship with AI

The host framed the current resurgence as a chicken-and-egg problem. More chips are needed for AI, and the new fabs building those chips need more intelligence themselves.

Jeff points to two trends converging. First, physics knowledge has grown, so manufacturing technologies differ greatly from those of 20 years ago. Second, demand for increasingly sophisticated semiconductors has grown on the design side. He then plays up the circularity: do we need more AI chips and GPUs because modern fabs need more AI for testing and for running complicated processes? Is the demand coming from the fabs or from the data centers? He jokes that it's "a great business model." More seriously, he calls it a virtuous circle, in which advancing manufacturing technology and rising demand for sophisticated chips reinforce each other.

Danielle acknowledges that opening every conversation with the explosion of AI has become almost cliché, but she says it really is what's driving the industry. AI creates demand for more chips and more advanced chips. That creates demand for more manufacturing facilities, more automation, more connectivity, and more data collection for predictive maintenance and fab optimization. In her account, all of it traces back to the need for more processing power and higher speed.

The Speakers' Backgrounds and What They've Watched Change

Danielle says her first SEMICON was around 1999 or 2000. She lived through the transition from 200 mm to 300 mm wafers, which she says drove the need for more automation. It also drove many of the industry standards for fabs, such as how tools interface, which are common across fabs whether they belong to TSMC, Intel, or Micron. In recent years, she says, AI's growth has brought real changes in how chips are manufactured, especially more complexity on the back end. "We never would have thought we'd be doing lithography on the back end 25 years ago," she says, calling it a great time to be in the industry.

Jeff has worked in the industry on and off for about 15 years. He focuses on data and its role. He describes himself as "a manufacturing operations person at heart." He says he is less literate about what happens inside a process chamber, but he concentrates on concerns shared by every manufacturer: material handling, supply chain, logistics, the economics of running a profitable fab, capacity management, and yield. His broader digital role lets him compare semiconductors with other industries, and he notes how often semiconductors lead the way in new capabilities.

Before and After 2020: Local Manufacturing, Global R&D

The host recalled his own time working with semiconductor equipment manufacturers in Northern California. Back then, the Bay Area was mainly where design and conversations happened, and much of the building took place overseas. Now fabs are appearing around Phoenix, which he gives as one reason SEMICON West was held there.

Danielle says the biggest change since 2020, and since COVID, concerns the industry's global nature. The supply chain has always been global. She recommends the book Chip War for explaining how the industry began in the U.S. and then globalized, including why lithography ended up where it did and why much manufacturing moved to Taiwan and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. In her view, that globalization expanded greatly between 2000 and 2020. Now the industry is seeing more reshoring and nearshoring, with companies doing more "in the region for the region." She names supply chain complexity as one of the biggest changes she has seen over her career.

Asked what excites her about the current situation, she describes an inversion. Manufacturing is being localized while R&D is being globalized. R&D was once concentrated in Northern California and the Boston area. Now she engages with R&D and design engineers in India, across Asia, and in Japan. The host singled this out as a key takeaway: "Manufacturing has been localized, R&D has been globalized."

Jeff focuses on the fabs themselves. He says fabs built 20 years ago were purpose-built for particular categories of semiconductors and look inflexible by today's standards. Their subfabs could not easily adapt water, gas, and electrical energy management. Tools were hard to move within the clean room, and the physical spaces were limiting. New fabs, he says, are built for flexibility and adaptability: to handle changing market conditions, different materials standards, and different ways of handling wafers. He adds that older 200 mm fabs are still running, still profitable, and remain "the backbones of many businesses." He hesitates to call them cash cows but says "they pay the bills," even though they are built very differently from today's fabs.

200 mm vs. 300 mm and the "Two-Nanometer Node"

For listeners outside the industry, the host asked Danielle what the wafer sizes mean. She explains that they refer to the diameter of the silicon wafer the chips are produced on. Most industries think in terms of shrinking, and she notes the irony: the wafers have gotten larger over the last 20 years, going from 200 mm to 300 mm in diameter, while the circuits and features on them have become dramatically smaller, now in the single-digit nanometer range. She notes some disagreement about how the industry characterizes feature sizes. When people say the industry is at the two-nanometer node, that "doesn't necessarily mean the features are two nanometers, but it means they're really darn small."

What Equipment Builders Are Excited About: A Data Snowball

Asked what equipment makers are focused on, Jeff describes another self-reinforcing cycle. OEMs are developing their own ideas about how to "sensor the machine," a verb he uses deliberately. At the same time, chip designers are sending requirements: can you make the chip this way? Once the OEM says yes, it becomes concerned with the maintainability, performance, and health of the tool. The next question is whether it is gathering the right data from the tool, and he says the answer is usually no.

More data to gather means more to connect, more data to store, and more sophisticated analytics for machine health and semiconductor quality. "You see where the snowball goes," he says. Capable machine builders look for ways to apply their capabilities, chip makers want those capabilities, and OEMs are happy to provide them. That in turn creates demand for companies like Harding and Rockwell that help keep assets running. He calls this growth distinctive to semiconductors, because few other products combine changing physics with changing functional demands.

Danielle describes what she hears from equipment manufacturers as "do more with less." Tools are not getting bigger and fabs are not getting cheaper, so floor space is extremely valuable. Whether the component is connectivity, a wafer-handling robot, a lift assembly, or another subsystem, it generally needs to be smaller while being more complex. It needs higher precision, higher speed, and less vibration.

Parallels with Other Industries

Returning to Jeff's cross-industry perspective, the host asked for concrete parallels. Jeff starts with predictive maintenance. Across industries, machine tools are becoming more sophisticated and expensive, which raises the penalty for unplanned downtime. He points to precision manufacturers, such as medical device makers and certain aerospace equipment manufacturers, where a tool going down or a process excursion has a very high cost of quality. For them, moving from preventive to predictive maintenance becomes a compelling case, and AI is being applied to what he calls "the walls of data."

He also names new forms of non-destructive evaluation, beyond vision systems, as new ways of testing whether a product is adequate. Here he says semiconductors lead because of the physics and the tiny scale involved. In his view, inspection and quality management are areas where semiconductor manufacturing sets the pace and other precision industries, such as medical devices, are looking to adapt.

Why Phoenix, and What About Water?

The host raised what he called a possible misperception: Phoenix is not near a great lake or an ocean, so why are water-hungry fabs being built there?

Danielle lists several factors in fab siting. The first is available skilled labor. The second is geography: Phoenix is dry, and "humidity is the enemy of the fab" and of many processes. The third is that there is essentially no seismic activity to contend with. Beyond these, she mentions governmental factors such as incentives, and the preference for politically stable, environmentally suitable locations. She calls Phoenix "the perfect confluence" of these. She acknowledges real challenges around water and chemical usage in a water-constrained place. Fabs are responding by reclaiming and reusing water and by capturing chemical waste and repurposing it, which she notes is expensive. In her framing, the positives are weighed against these challenges, and Phoenix still makes sense.

Jeff says sustainability is usually discussed in terms of water, air, gas, electricity, and steam. What he has learned about semiconductors is that the interrelationships among these resources are much more sophisticated than in other industries. In Arizona, for example, water is a constraint while electricity is less so. He says companies moving into the area are telling the state they have technologies to reduce water consumption: dosing water differently and using different chemistries. He is careful not to claim outright that fabs will trade more electricity for less water. He says only that "those kinds of calculations may be out there," which a heavy-machinery manufacturer probably would not be making. For him, this illustrates how finely the industry can manage scarce resources.

Advice for Outsiders: Learn the Language, Partner, and Be Patient

The final question was aimed at listeners outside the industry, from small family-run machine shops and local integrators to enterprise engineers and early-career professionals. What should they do to be better equipped to serve semiconductors?

Danielle's first recommendation is to build a team willing to dig in and learn the industry, "even if it's a team of one." Returning to the CERN analogy, she says the complexity means someone must learn to speak the language and understand the processes. You can't understand the customer's pain points without understanding what they do. You don't need to be a physics expert, but you do need to know what type of process you are dealing with and what its key needs are.

Her second point, which she says she can't stress strongly enough, is to partner with the customer. This is not an industry where a supplier arrives with the newest thing and the customer adopts it because it is new. The industry is high-tech and forward-thinking, she says, "but it's also very risk-averse because every hour of downtime in a fab is worth tens of thousands of dollars." No one wants to be responsible for a fab, or even one process, going down. Suppliers therefore need to co-develop products with customers and be ready for long timelines. She says tool development timeframes run three to five years: start a project now and you may see production in five years. The reward is that once you are in production, you have a valued partner for as long as that tool is produced. She also warns about the industry's ups and downs and sums up the requirement as "patience."

Copy Exact

The host prompted Danielle to explain "copy exact," which she had deliberately avoided because it is something of a buzzword. The industry operates on the principle that everything must be the same every single time. A supplier cannot change anything about its product without approval from the equipment manufacturer, sometimes all the way up to the fab. She says this includes something as minor as the color of a wire. That makes a design win very rewarding, but it again demands a long-term commitment and a partnership mindset. The host added that most manufacturers would be thrilled to get locked in the way this industry allows. He said he found this unusual when he first sold into semiconductors as a Rockwell salesperson.

Jeff's Closing Advice: Data Is the Currency

Jeff's final advice centers on data. "Semiconductor is defined by the complexity of the data," he says. Every industry runs on data, but this one does so to a much larger degree, and in his words, data is "the currency of conversation." He gives two examples. A maintenance services provider should integrate with the data that shows how the fab is behaving. A materials supplier should integrate its schedules not only with on-hand material balances in the fab's stores but with what is actually happening in the fab.

He concludes that the successful partners will be the companies that speak the language of operational data, "because that is money." He ties this to Danielle's point about partnership: companies that speak the language of industrial data will be welcome partners in semiconductors.